Trading the SPX

Atilla · Apr 19, 2007

debbie62 said:
Is this what you are talking about?
I would be very wary of putting targets with all this strength around

Hi Debbie, my H&S didn't materialise I'm afraid.

See http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=14897&page=2&pp=10 post 1461.

I suppose ther may be another H&S possibility forming but I can't tell as yet.

On weekly charts I think S&P is at the top of it's trending range and should fall. But MACD, RSI & Stochastics and BBs and MAs all showing bullish long term rises.

Would like to see some falls before attempting to short against this uprise momentum.

debbie62 · Apr 20, 2007

Chocolate said:
Debbie, excuse my ignorance, but are the numbers 1.83, 1.87 etc. ratios of price moves. And are these significant numbers? And what does the D signify - A is up, B is correction, and C is up again but Ds seem to mark possible tops.

Bez, The ballistic breakout in the semiconductors today makes me think we might head higher for a few days now, perhaps into next Thursday, before a major correction. This seems to tally with your wave (C) in your 60 min chart though (maybe with a little correction before it), but it doesn't seem to tally with your higher frame chart which says we're going to yo-yo about for a few days now. Now that I think of it, this might be possible to tempt shorters back in before this final wave up.

I guess what I'm basically saying is what in the theory says we're going to pause at this important juncture rather than just blast right through hang around for a few days at or just under 1500 and then plummet till the end of the year! :^D

Hi Chocolate,
sorry to have taken so long to reply to your questions, but here we go.
You are correct to say that the numbers, 1.83,1.87 are ratios of price moves.
these particular ones are not recognised as significant numbers.
the ABCD is a pattern which can have a number of ratios between the two peaks and troughs
but it should be understood as the basic way of a directional move, up or down. It is considered more significant when AB=CD. That is where geometry comes in.

debbie62 · Apr 20, 2007

Bez said:
It does ...We have a Medium frame coming into play....

The problem is the next higher frame the seasonal Long is up which tends to drag the lower frames late or just on time & that window is nomally around the 24th of April..

Bez, why do you say normally? Is it not everytime a different date?

debbie62 · Apr 20, 2007

29Investments said:
Hope ur right - been looking for a pull back for a while now and and getting mega frustrated by th inability of this thing to do anything other than go UP !!!

I was wrong.
we seem to be going for a AB=CD at the 1.618 rather.

debbie62 · Apr 20, 2007

Joules MM1 said:
good..............less clutter, less of the abstract stuff that takes you away form what trading actually is............

articulate what the term "very interesting" actually means .........please

more than interesting.

Bez · Apr 20, 2007

debbie62 said:
Bez, why do you say normally? Is it not everytime a different date?

Different Calendar dates yes but Cycle days its not normally far off based on fib timing...

Bez · Apr 20, 2007

Update on that SPX chart..

We did get the wave (iv) The delta nailed theEW action !

debbie62 · Apr 20, 2007

Bez said:
Update on that SPX chart..

We did get the wave (iv) The delta nailed theEW action !

so if understand properly, you are expecting a move up of around 14 points in the SPX, reaching a top either Monday or Tuesday. This means about 140 points for the Dow,ie at around 13090. This seems to tie with my targets of 13070.
However I would not be surprised to see a move to the 13320 area for the Dow, ie. 1520 for the SPX. I must point out this is low probability move, as we stand now.

Chocolate · Apr 21, 2007

Bez said:
I don't know if it will plummet till the end of the year though...:?:

It has two options either a Expanded flat or a triangle...The traiangle will take up a lot of time but less on price while the flat will be a swift move down but take less in time...

My old flat count & the triangle...

I love your predictions Bez :^). The expanded flat or triangle idea makes a lot of sense to me. And it all begins on Thursday with the DOW having reached 13150 would be my target.

So in the super long term you reckon this might be a wave 4 and we actually head higher through the summer and into the end of the year!

Actually in the uber uber long term, are we in an expanded flat at the moment since about 2000?

Debbie, I think I see...ABCD are the moves between highs, so consolidate-up-consolidate-up. I kind-of see where you're coming from now! Basically price ratios to help determine price pivots from where reversals are likely...

Bez · Apr 24, 2007

Up date on that SPX Chart...

Pat494 · Apr 24, 2007

debbie62 said:
so if understand properly, you are expecting a move up of around 14 points in the SPX, reaching a top either Monday or Tuesday. This means about 140 points for the Dow,ie at around 13090. This seems to tie with my targets of 13070.
However I would not be surprised to see a move to the 13320 area for the Dow, ie. 1520 for the SPX. I must point out this is low probability move, as we stand now.

Excuse me for asking but what went wrong ? Admittedly I agreed with an up Mon and Tues. I guess the building starts and confidence figures squashed that a bit ?

Bez · Apr 24, 2007

I think people miss read on how 161.8% are used...

That 161.8% (1498) was just to show the maximum that the move could possibly go.... All the other charts had the standard 123.6% -127.2% area for a classic flat exp flat set up(1484-1488).. On hind sight I shouldn't of left it on, if its confused anyone..

Atilla · Apr 24, 2007

Bez said:
I think people miss read on how 161.8% are used...

That 161.8% (1498) was just to show the maximum that the move could possibly go.... All the other charts had the standard 123.6% -127.2% area for a classic flat exp flat set up(1484-1488).. On hind sight I shouldn't of left it on, if its confused anyone..

I'm with you Bez, as having read up on the Delta a little bit I give due consideration to the direction and timing of the moves but not their magnitude.

Fibonacci levels I use to measure strength of moves or retraces.

Keepem coming as I'm also trying to get to grips with EW. However, I do have a problem here with the repeat ABCs and i - v's but I'm sure the penny will drop.

debbie62 · Apr 24, 2007

Bez said:
I think people miss read on how 161.8% are used...

That 161.8% (1498) was just to show the maximum that the move could possibly go.... All the other charts had the standard 123.6% -127.2% area for a classic flat exp flat set up(1484-1488).. On hind sight I shouldn't of left it on, if its confused anyone..

An alternate way of explaing why we stopped the move up, here. However, I did expect this to have happened at a higher level.

debbie62 · Apr 25, 2007

Bez said:
I think people miss read on how 161.8% are used...

That 161.8% (1498) was just to show the maximum that the move could possibly go.... All the other charts had the standard 123.6% -127.2% area for a classic flat exp flat set up(1484-1488).. On hind sight I shouldn't of left it on, if its confused anyone..

the way I see the ES future moving is up towards thre red line after making a drop to the 1489 area , however, I have a problem with the time frames since I expected a low to have appeared between the 10/4 and the 24/4. Can you explain what may have happened or if mycount is wrong.

atholh · Apr 29, 2007

Fwiw, a market view until 2010 /// I was browsing around the Polish academia and came across a paper written in 2005 that modeled the market using log-normal functions. So far it has been pretty good. Here is a link to selected extracts with charts.

Atilla · Apr 29, 2007

atholh said:
Fwiw, a market view until 2010 /// I was browsing around the Polish academia and came across a paper written in 2005 that modeled the market using log-normal functions. So far it has been pretty good. Here is a link to selected extracts with charts.

Hi everyone,

Just having another inquisitive look at the crystal charts and wondering how much higher we can go?

Here is one of my first charts I posted back in November 06 and an updated one... I'm absolutely shocked to see that 1500 has indeed arrived despite all the luggage the US economy carries.

I don't think the bad news has lifted. The jury on the softlanding is still out but a pretty good case can be made for it. I'm reluctantly to believe it but don't wish to be seen as an ostrich with it's head in the sand.

I think we should have a 10% correction any time now but I have a sneaky feeling we might not and instead see the SPX500 touch 1600 first.

I'm leaving my options open and will trade the short term charts.

Forgot to mention - Notice the correction in March 07 instead of the previous 3 x 61% retracement - DESPITE the over extension of the markets to 1450, the correction was only around 25% since the strong rise from June 06.

Not only that the subsequent recovery has stormed forward to 1500 in a month or so. Hence, either we have a very strong recovery or very good extension for a proportional pull back.

I have tried to apply EW numbers to these weekly charts but just can't get them to equate in their nice order as in the text books. I've left out the numbering so as not to embarass mi self.

ajaskey · Apr 30, 2007

Atilla said:
I have tried to apply EW numbers to these weekly charts but just can't get them to equate in their nice order as in the text books. I've left out the numbering so as not to embarass mi self.

What's wrong with this one?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2002-07-01&id=p01876170808&a=105137403&listNum=2

Atilla · Apr 30, 2007

ajaskey said:
What's wrong with this one?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2002-07-01&id=p01876170808&a=105137403&listNum=2

Well this could have been the top today for some time.

If this continues another couple of days it could be the big one?

smccreedy · May 1, 2007

For me this chart sums up the S&P now.

As long as this trendline is in place it's a buy. I'm not in this market although played the short yesterday and covered it last night.

Bull markets are defined by effortless large upswings and small pained moves lower that are reversed as quickly as they came.

Stricly speaking you would buy the S&P this morning at 1491 (Jun Fut) and hang on for more as long as the rising line isn't violated.

Stephen McCreedy

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