FX-2007: Jan 22nd > Jan 26th

Atilla · Jan 26, 2007

Offshore Trader said:
A win's a win guys.+7 sounds pretty good from where I am sitting.

Still persisting in trying to trade breakouts. This morning's long breakout of the Asian range stopped and now short, which hardly looks any more convincing. BUT if Euro breaks the 1.2890/00 support we could see some serious downside

I'm long on the Euro.

It's been in a sideward range and my indicators showing over sold regions ready for a bounce.

As you say if it does brake 1.285 I'll be out.

I think the long term strength of the Euro will continue as more and more countries & banks switch from the $ to the Euro. Impending confrontation with Iran and all that turmoil. Euro & Gold will stand to gain.

Offshore Trader · Jan 26, 2007

You could be right about the Euro. The market doesn't even seem to want to test the support. There must be quite a lot of bids at 05/10 level

jacinto · Jan 26, 2007

Atilla said:
I'm long on the Euro.

It's been in a sideward range and my indicators showing over sold regions ready for a bounce.

As you say if it does brake 1.285 I'll be out.

I think the long term strength of the Euro will continue as more and more countries & banks switch from the $ to the Euro. Impending confrontation with Iran and all that turmoil. Euro & Gold will stand to gain.

Hi Atilla,

I am quite bearish with euro. probably not today, or tomorrow, but bearish overall.

to me, the euro is to the buck what buying a noncyclical cash cow is to the stock market when the stock market falls. :cheesy:

j

dc2000 · Jan 26, 2007

Cable good to go

JohnG FX · Jan 26, 2007

Doubled up, long again @ 9600 the .50 fib holding so far. stops at 9574

A bit concerned with swissy breaking 1.2545, let's see if it pulls back

Phil Mibbutz · Jan 26, 2007

dc2000 said:
Cable good to go

Up or down?!

City Bound · Jan 26, 2007

City Bound said:
Stopped and reversed on the other side of the range. Short at 624.

Stop to BE.

City Bound · Jan 26, 2007

dc2000 said:
Cable good to go

Trust you to be so aloof!

dc2000 · Jan 26, 2007

Long. the target for the short and turn 575

Atilla · Jan 26, 2007

jacinto said:
Hi Atilla,

I am quite bearish with euro. probably not today, or tomorrow, but bearish overall.

to me, the euro is to the buck what buying a noncyclical cash cow is to the stock market when the stock market falls. :cheesy:

j

Hi Jacinto,

Looking at the long term charts my view is that we are in a short term down trend perhaps but I feel the news from UK, Germany and France has been strong growth and positive cash liquidity.

Given increase in growth forecasts for economies around the world I'm expecting further possible interest rate hikes in Europe.

Also the news from US is all about soft landing or some kind of slowdown. The Fed has been very reluctant to raise interest rates although I would pencil in a possible rate hike if CPI rises and housing recovers.

Coming back to charts the 1.285 regions have been tested no less than 6 times and I consider it support level. I can see if it is breached the next point likely to be 1.250 regions. 1.285 is also approx 61% retracement since the surge in Euro from Oct-06.

I'm expecting a bounce because I do feel investors and central banks will continue to switch out of the $ given the Bush administrations conduct for wars.

In the long term I'm very bullish about the Euro. I would finally add that I feel the Euro has consolidated it's gains between 2004 - 2006 and ready for another surge against the $.

Phil Mibbutz · Jan 26, 2007

dc2000 said:
Long. the target for the short and turn 575

Pleased to hear it, DC, because that's what I'm hoping, but still worried about another lunge down to about 550 before upward trend. Good job I'm such an optimist.

dc2000 · Jan 26, 2007

is the reason why traders use so many indicators because of the fear of losses?
must be!

each time I add a new indicator, its to cater for an event (in the past) that resulted in a loss, and the expectation that it wont happen again in the future.

BUT, if you apply the (Immutable ) Law of Diminishing Returns, each additional indicator adds less and less value.

I have spent this week mostly in front of the screen, and these extra indicators actually create conflicting signals.

I have this week, removed my;
1: 5-EMA-High and 5-EMA-Low channels;
2: 21-Hull-MA
3: ADX ( am going to use Stochs OB/OS to mark the highs and lows, and eyeball the range-iness )

current indicators:
1: 55-Hull-MA (=trend)
2: Stochastics (7,3,3) / Stocfhastics (21,4,10) = LBR/Jimmer (=oscillator, identify pullbacks)
3: Bollinger Band (21,2) (=volatility)

Now, all I need is to find out how to use them!

fear of losses and fear of missing a trade that an indicator would have shouted reminds me of a couple of years ago I had 8 screens trading indices lots of charts and indicators these days Im down to 3 screens and no indicators

dc2000 · Jan 26, 2007

the only thing to lunge down today will be the Dow looking for 12405 march futures right now though Im off out shopping Joy of Joys

jacinto · Jan 26, 2007

dc2000 said:
fear of losses and fear of missing a trade that an indicator would have shouted reminds me of a couple of years ago I had 8 screens trading indices lots of charts and indicators these days Im down to 3 screens and no indicators

i feel i have betrayed trading naked by adding 1 indicator 3 weeks ago.

Phil Mibbutz · Jan 26, 2007

Cable seems to be struggling to get far past 600. Someone said 606 is a magic number. Discuss...

JohnG FX · Jan 26, 2007

Still holding longs from 9637 & 9600

Gold getting a hefty bounce from $642 which should push USD down

wasp · Jan 26, 2007

Phil Mibbutz said:
Cable seems to be struggling to get far past 600. Someone said 606 is a magic number. Discuss...

I thought 3 was the magic number :cheesy:

candles · Jan 26, 2007

cable being boring. DC thinks up and one the only one of my systems to have triggered from last night seems to think we should see higher prices today, Maybe a very small long from here for me.

Offshore Trader · Jan 26, 2007

Is the silence because everyone's struggling? These whippy markets of the last few days are great for scalpers but not much use for position traders. I can only assume that no-one wants to be stuck long of dollars because whilst the trend is dollar positive everytime there is a further nudge from helpful economic stats, the dollar is then sold. I'm very frustrated today, I've been short most of the day and going to end up making virtually nothing.

Good weekend everyone

Crap Buddist · Jan 26, 2007

reading upside for cable here, being long from 594, also good op short USD/CHF circa 1.2536 Whether or not they keep the prices depressed between now and close , dunno but will be anticipating cable pushing north early next week. Or a nice friday avo rally would do.

See if it rallies after 5pm.

FX-2007: Jan 22nd > Jan 26th

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