Once A Year Buying Point Triggered

starspacer · Jan 31, 2006

It doesn't get any better than this for an entry point. Also statistically, NatGas exhibits a strong tendency to bottom in Feb.

Please send 50% of your free profits to charity. :cheesy::cheesy:

TWI · Feb 1, 2006

I am long this already but it is a very expensive market ($10,000/pt or $2,500 for the mini) and trades fundamentals. This year US has been very warm and so there is a large build in storage. I do believe cold weather can trigger upside and you are right seasonally there is a bull move in Feb although only has a 53% bias histroically. This is not a no brainer, it has a lot of work to do.

starspacer · Feb 1, 2006

twalker said:
I am long this already but it is a very expensive market ($10,000/pt or $2,500 for the mini) and trades fundamentals. This year US has been very warm and so there is a large build in storage. I do believe cold weather can trigger upside and you are right seasonally there is a bull move in Feb although only has a 53% bias histroically. This is not a no brainer, it has a lot of work to do.

Not very expensive if you SB it (which I have).
And since when has any BIG money been made on fundamentals?? But that's another argument...

Anyone following my suggestion would have made £290 already on the minimum bet possible of £1. http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxmk725YYGB

Please don't quote something I haven't said twalker. I didn't say that it was "a no brainer" and I have done a lot of work - to the benefit of whoever followed my suggestion.

And, with respect, your 53% figure is meaningless but since you quote statistics, let me quote some:

If we bought Natural Gas around the 15th of every February, and sold it two months later, using no other inputs, then we would have had a profitable trade in 11 out of the past 15 years, with an average gain of +14.0%. During those two months we would have suffered an average drawdown of -7.0%, but we also would have enjoyed an average maximum gain of +28.2%.

starspacer · Feb 1, 2006

starspacer said:
Anyone following my suggestion would have made £290 already on the minimum bet possible of £1.

Make that £405 on the minimum bet as at 4.50pm.

starspacer · Feb 1, 2006

Proof that timing is everything. http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxmk725YYGB

Love the volaitility of this baby http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZNxmk725YYGB

TWI · Feb 1, 2006

Starspacer,
You are not looking so clever anymore at 20:00hrs are you.
I was merely offering my advice since I have been an energy marke pro for many years and seen Nat Gas do some horribly unexpected things that turned great looking PnLs into dogs very rapidly.
Today the selloff occured because a large NG trader who runs a fund started to go for stops and it just snowballed from there, took me out also.
I knwo this is probably not for you but for others who may like to know:
Stocks of NG are 22% over the 5yr avg and will add to the surplus this and next week. Over the last 4 weeks, stocks have fallen only on average 37/wk. (avg about 140/wk). There were 44 warmer than normal hdd last week and this week estimates 65 warmer
than norm and an estimated draw for next week around 70b's.

Suggest you learn not to count your pennies before they are in the bank but as your post shows you stopped out with a profit like everybody else who likes to big it up.

starspacer · Feb 1, 2006

twalker said:
Starspacer,
You are not looking so clever anymore at 20:00hrs are you.

I would call an 11.4% profit in 5 trading days pretty good.

I was merely offering my advice since I have been an energy marke pro for many years and seen Nat Gas do some horribly unexpected things that turned great looking PnLs into dogs very rapidly.

Happens in every volatile market. Solution is to limit leverage according to your means and take exceptional profits.

Today the selloff occured because a large NG trader who runs a fund started to go for stops and it just snowballed from there, took me out also.

Sorry to hear that.

Stocks of NG are 22% over the 5yr avg and will add to the surplus this and next week. Over the last 4 weeks, stocks have fallen only on average 37/wk. (avg about 140/wk). There were 44 warmer than normal hdd last week and this week estimates 65 warmer
than norm and an estimated draw for next week around 70b's.

And what about the stockpiles of China, India and Europe?

Suggest you learn not to count your pennies before they are in the bank but as your post shows you stopped out with a profit like everybody else who likes to big it up.

But the pennies are in the bank twalker.

TWI · Feb 1, 2006

Sorry, my misunderstanding of the title, "Once a Year Buying Point Triggered"
I obviously wrongly assumed this to be indicative of more than some day trade, hence my earlier caution to the errant reader. Not that the entry was incorrect, probability says it had to be taken but I do not think anything in Natgas can be put on and forgotten about as you have so skillfully demonstrated.
Good Luck.

starspacer · Feb 1, 2006

twalker said:
Sorry, my misunderstanding of the title, "Once a Year Buying Point Triggered"
I obviously wrongly assumed this to be indicative of more than some day trade, hence my earlier caution to the errant reader. Not that the entry was incorrect, probability says it had to be taken but I do not think anything in Natgas can be put on and forgotten about as you have so skillfully demonstrated.
Good Luck.

And good luck to you my friend

JBraswell · Feb 1, 2006

Interesting discussion guys. I'm long natty on a position trade, too, based on the seasonals, commitment of traders, and technicals. I'm hoping the storage surplus doesn't screw me over, though it certainly may.

Twalker, how do you know who caused today's late selloff?

TWI · Feb 2, 2006

Twalker, how do you know who caused today's late selloff?

Word gets around fast in this biz.

starspacer · Feb 9, 2006

Back In

Back into NatGas today-4 contracts. Some sort of bounce due and statistically, bottoming process should be occurring over the next week (see my stats in a previous post).

Buyers seem to come in around the 7.30 mark and heaps of support around $7. I'll reassess if a close occurs below $7. Watching the futures, interesting that although Crude staged a reversal (Ngas 55% correlated with Crude), Nat Gas actually held around $7.30 to $7.50. Strongly suggested measured and clever buying.

Let's see if there is a bounce into the weekend.

TWI · Feb 24, 2006

Did you hang in there? With current stocks this is gonna be a hard ride but I think building a long, scale down, may not be a bad bet, reasonable seasonals from here and any persistent cold weather from here will see support emerge. Downside appears to get exhausted below 7.0.
It will trade a completely different supply demand from the other energies.

starspacer · Feb 25, 2006

twalker said:
Did you hang in there? With current stocks this is gonna be a hard ride but I think building a long, scale down, may not be a bad bet, reasonable seasonals from here and any persistent cold weather from here will see support emerge. Downside appears to get exhausted below 7.0.
It will trade a completely different supply demand from the other energies.

Hello twalker. I bought a further contract at 7.20ish, exited 2 at 7.70ish and will buy 2 more if a dip to 7 occurs. We're now going into favourable seasonality and I'm happy to hold for 2 months or unless an unsustainable spike occurs sooner. The return from here should be good (+13.5% in two months normally). Drawdown from here should be 5% max. I'll reassess if 6.8 is broken.
Good luck.

TWI · Feb 26, 2006

Yep, I am with you on this one. Seasonality is probably worth a go same would go for Gasoline if there was not so much uncertainty about contract spec. My main reason for being long NG now is that you really can keep a reasonably close stop on it, the excess stock and warm weather is well priced in and one wonders how much more negative things can get from here going into March. Lets keep fingers crossed for some nice cold 7-10 day forecasts.

JumpOff · Feb 26, 2006

starspacer said:
....Also statistically, NatGas exhibits a strong tendency to bottom in Feb....

This seems completely counterintuitive to me. I wonder why prices tend to bottom at the peak/end of the heating season?
JO

starspacer · Feb 27, 2006

JumpOff said:
This seems completely counterintuitive to me. I wonder why prices tend to bottom at the peak/end of the heating season?
JO

I could probably offer 10 possible explanations, all of which may be wrong. The point is that January, February and March account for 32% of the lows, but only 11% of the highs. October, November and December, on the other hand, account for only 8% of the lows, but 39% of the highs.

Sooner or later, the market is going to be anticipating hurricane season and this is when I expect the fireworks to begin. Until then I will be carefully accumulating at 6.80 to 7ish. If the price drops lower than 7, some of the current gas production will become uneconomic and be taken off line. This should help to re-balance the supply/demand seesaw.

Good luck all.

TheBramble · Feb 27, 2006

JumpOff said:
This seems completely counterintuitive to me. I wonder why prices tend to bottom at the peak/end of the heating season?
JO

Supply and Demand - and - anticipation of Supply and Demand.

A Summer Sale sells Summer goods at the end of the Summer.

hth

starspacer · Feb 28, 2006

Are you still in twalker?

Added 2 contracts today - I liked the eod price action.

TWI · Mar 1, 2006

I am flat again, had a close stop. Will look to re-enter when I get another signal

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