Where is the Dow and Mothers heading in 2006?
- Thread starter tradesmart
- Start date
- Watchers 15
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Yes Leo, the 11200 target keeps coming up in t/a calcs - maybe it'll get hit soon...!.... 
Futs now up over +70 - looks like yesterday was the big pivot...
Futs now up over +70 - looks like yesterday was the big pivot...
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
A big gap up at the open today which makes for 2 gaps to be potentially filled, both within 100 points of the close level today….(apart from the remaining unfilled gaps north of 950..!)
Strength tomorrow could see the upper gap get filled first; weakness the lower imho
GDP data at 13.30gmt tomorrow and New Home sales at 15.00 could decide the outcome…
3-peak ND on RSI at the current 61.8% retracement level suggests a pullback, but positive reaction to data could easily overcome this…
Strength tomorrow could see the upper gap get filled first; weakness the lower imho
GDP data at 13.30gmt tomorrow and New Home sales at 15.00 could decide the outcome…
3-peak ND on RSI at the current 61.8% retracement level suggests a pullback, but positive reaction to data could easily overcome this…
Attachments
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Above:-
Strength it was, and with 850 prior resistance broken, the objective had to be to fill the upper gap and hit the next resistance level up at 10950……
Such is the current return to bullishness, should current 950 resistance be broken the next wave up could clearly test the recent high at 11080ish.
But a break of the steep trendline underpinning the 3 day rise could see a retracement to test 850 resistance as support imho, and of course there is an unfilled gap at c10750 that could act as a ‘siren’ for the bears..
I note that oil rose to nearly $68 today, but was ignored (for now) – maybe the focus is on the FED meeting Tuesday and Alan’s ‘legacy’ rally…?!.....
Strength it was, and with 850 prior resistance broken, the objective had to be to fill the upper gap and hit the next resistance level up at 10950……
Such is the current return to bullishness, should current 950 resistance be broken the next wave up could clearly test the recent high at 11080ish.
But a break of the steep trendline underpinning the 3 day rise could see a retracement to test 850 resistance as support imho, and of course there is an unfilled gap at c10750 that could act as a ‘siren’ for the bears..
I note that oil rose to nearly $68 today, but was ignored (for now) – maybe the focus is on the FED meeting Tuesday and Alan’s ‘legacy’ rally…?!.....
Attachments
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Yet another ‘triangle of indecision’ under construction for most of the day until the decision was made in the last hour and it had to be down….but not too far down yet
If the triangle meets its target 850 could be in the sights soon…maybe some selling is to be expected ahead of Opec and the FED meetings tomorrow…oil over $68 again as well….
A big inv H&S in the making…..? – time will tell
Tomi Kilgore:-
The thought had crossed my mind.....
If the triangle meets its target 850 could be in the sights soon…maybe some selling is to be expected ahead of Opec and the FED meetings tomorrow…oil over $68 again as well….
A big inv H&S in the making…..? – time will tell
Tomi Kilgore:-
The thought had crossed my mind.....
Attachments
Last edited:
mark twain uk
Established member
- Messages
- 618
- Likes
- 4
An interesting writing by the Mogambo Guru, he seems to be in a right mood:
COMEDY OF THE ABSURD
by The Mogambo Guru
I was sitting right there in the audience when the overlords at the US Labor Department trotted their quants out of the dank, diseased cellars where they live, and had them say soothing things to us stupid, unwashed masses.
Looking right at me with their beady little eyes, they snarled, "Everything is fine, but you are stupid! And ugly!"
So you can see how Bloomberg News got it all wrong when they reported that the words the Labor Department used
were: "US consumer prices unexpectedly fell for a second month in December as energy prices declined, a government report showed. Excluding food and energy, prices rose no faster in 2005 than the year before, supporting the Federal Reserve's view that inflation remains tame."
They went on, despite my very loud protests, saying, "The 0.1 percent decline in the consumer price index follows a 0.6 percent decline in November, the first back-to-back declines in two years. Core prices, which exclude fuel and food, rose 0.2 percent for a third month."
It is perhaps coincidental that we got this laughable report on "tame" inflation so soon after I personally wrote to the Federal Reserve about this very topic. I mean, just that morning I had written them, starting the letter out with the usual salutation...
"Dear butthead Federal Reserve idiots that are killing the dollar and America with your insane monetary- inflation stupidity..."
But this is not about the first 225 pages of my inflammatory letter to the Federal Reserve...nor how they were devoted to describing how much I hate their guts for being lying scumbag trash about creating monetary inflation, which creates price inflation, which they also lie about, and which is actually running much, much, much higher than they say.
Back at the press conference, they finally got a little closer to the truth when they admitted, "For all of 2005, the core index rose 2.2 percent." This is, remember, the "core" rate of inflation, which is akin to your showing up at the emergency room with your toes and fingers reduced to dead, blackened stumps by severe frostbite, and the doctor jamming a rectal thermometer up there and saying, "Nothing to worry about, as his core temperature is almost fine! Tame, in fact!"
I think all this talk about rectal thermometers got them nervous, and just before bounding from the room, they hurriedly said, "Consumer prices were up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in December compared with a 3.5 percent year-over-year gain the previous month. They rose 3.3 percent in 2004." Then they were gone!
So I was sitting there, stunned at the revelation of 3.4% inflation. Any price inflation is worrisome, and when price inflation is over 3%, it is - historically - supposed to have central bankers and governments jumping out of windows in panic, and citizens rioting in the streets, shouting, "Viva, Mogambo!" at the egregious mismanagement of the economy by the Federal Reserve and Congress.
Just remember that Richard Nixon once seized unprecedented dictatorial powers over wages and prices in the United States because inflation hit, one stinking year, an intolerable 4%. And now, fast-forwarding to today, 3.4% inflation, which we are suffering year after year, is somehow "tame"?
I feel a Mighty Roar Of Mogambo Outrage (MROMO) building deep in my chest at the very thought.
Just to show you a taste of the horror of inflation, the Labor Department said, "Weekly earnings of workers, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1 percent in December after rising in November by 0.8 percent." Hahaha! If you use the ridiculous "core rate" of inflation to dilute the buying power of nominal wage increases, then workers are essentially standing still! But if you devalue those wages by the real rate of inflation, which is running somewhere north of 7% (a number that I randomly pick from the air because it seems "right"), then US workers are suffering a huge drop in their standards of living.
This is manifested in having to make the choice of buying less stuff every week, or going further into debt every week. Whoopee...
And what accounts for this drop in prices that only government statisticians can see? They rounded up some unnamed "economists" to explain. "Discounts on automobiles and markdowns to lure holiday shoppers,"
they figured, "probably held down the consumer price index last month." Hahahaha! Lower prices to hold a big store-wide sale brings prices down? Wow! No wonder these geniuses make the big money...
But to be fair, it is not only government wonks and unnamed "economists" that say stupid things. How about "the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists taken Dec. 23 to Jan. 8," which breezily announces, "Price gains for all [US] goods and services may slow to
2.8 percent this year as fuel prices stabilise."
Hahaha! Fuel prices stabilising? Hahaha! What a comedy of the absurd!
Apparently, these guys do not share the same crystal ball as Kurt Wulffounder, of McDep Associates, whom Matt Badiali quotes as saying, "We'll have $150 per barrel oil by 2010."
And you can bet that Iran is not setting up a new oil- trading centre so that they can sell cheaper oil to Americans and the British!
Toni Straka, of the PrudentInvestor.blogspot.com, says that he is tired of hearing about
1.) Inflation in fuel costs...and
2.) About me trying to borrow five lousy bucks for some petrol.
Inflation, he says, is a function of what you use as money. "Would you pay your crude oil bill in the universally accepted currency of the last 6,000 years - commonly known as gold - your barrel would have become 28.4% percent cheaper since the nominal record high reached last August."
Thus, the value of a stable currency is again demonstrated, this time as less inflation at the pump.
And if we are talking about pricing oil in ounces of silver, it is cheaper yet.
See why I am always yelling about how only gold and silver should be used as money?
For those of you who like your market indicators moving in a more glacial vein, Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters writes, "From a Dow Theory standpoint, the [US] markets continue to face a major non- confirmation in the Averages. The Transports have risen to new record highs while the Dow has failed month after month to confirm. Thus, from a Dow Theory standpoint, this is a dangerous market. It's particularly dangerous because of this truly spectacular divergence and non- confirmation in the Averages."
Now, as today's obligatory lesson containing real "educational content", let's analyse this linguistically. First off, we note that he uses the adjectives "major", "record", and then "dangerous" - twice - and ends up with the word "spectacular". What was the author saying?
Well, I could call him up on the phone and ask him, but I am far too lazy and far too cheap to do that for one thing. And for another thing, I can just read his mind with my Amazing Mogambo Paranormal Abilities (AMPA).
Like thus...
I close my eyes. I concentrate. I send out waves of mental energy, locking onto his mind, sort of like a Vulcan mind-meld. I probe his mind. Probe. Probe.
Finally, I see what he means...
"Get up and buy gold, silver, platinum and oil, because these are the kind of tremors that happen at the Big Moment When The Tides Turn (BMWTTT)!
Regards,
The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning
COMEDY OF THE ABSURD
by The Mogambo Guru
I was sitting right there in the audience when the overlords at the US Labor Department trotted their quants out of the dank, diseased cellars where they live, and had them say soothing things to us stupid, unwashed masses.
Looking right at me with their beady little eyes, they snarled, "Everything is fine, but you are stupid! And ugly!"
So you can see how Bloomberg News got it all wrong when they reported that the words the Labor Department used
were: "US consumer prices unexpectedly fell for a second month in December as energy prices declined, a government report showed. Excluding food and energy, prices rose no faster in 2005 than the year before, supporting the Federal Reserve's view that inflation remains tame."
They went on, despite my very loud protests, saying, "The 0.1 percent decline in the consumer price index follows a 0.6 percent decline in November, the first back-to-back declines in two years. Core prices, which exclude fuel and food, rose 0.2 percent for a third month."
It is perhaps coincidental that we got this laughable report on "tame" inflation so soon after I personally wrote to the Federal Reserve about this very topic. I mean, just that morning I had written them, starting the letter out with the usual salutation...
"Dear butthead Federal Reserve idiots that are killing the dollar and America with your insane monetary- inflation stupidity..."
But this is not about the first 225 pages of my inflammatory letter to the Federal Reserve...nor how they were devoted to describing how much I hate their guts for being lying scumbag trash about creating monetary inflation, which creates price inflation, which they also lie about, and which is actually running much, much, much higher than they say.
Back at the press conference, they finally got a little closer to the truth when they admitted, "For all of 2005, the core index rose 2.2 percent." This is, remember, the "core" rate of inflation, which is akin to your showing up at the emergency room with your toes and fingers reduced to dead, blackened stumps by severe frostbite, and the doctor jamming a rectal thermometer up there and saying, "Nothing to worry about, as his core temperature is almost fine! Tame, in fact!"
I think all this talk about rectal thermometers got them nervous, and just before bounding from the room, they hurriedly said, "Consumer prices were up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in December compared with a 3.5 percent year-over-year gain the previous month. They rose 3.3 percent in 2004." Then they were gone!
So I was sitting there, stunned at the revelation of 3.4% inflation. Any price inflation is worrisome, and when price inflation is over 3%, it is - historically - supposed to have central bankers and governments jumping out of windows in panic, and citizens rioting in the streets, shouting, "Viva, Mogambo!" at the egregious mismanagement of the economy by the Federal Reserve and Congress.
Just remember that Richard Nixon once seized unprecedented dictatorial powers over wages and prices in the United States because inflation hit, one stinking year, an intolerable 4%. And now, fast-forwarding to today, 3.4% inflation, which we are suffering year after year, is somehow "tame"?
I feel a Mighty Roar Of Mogambo Outrage (MROMO) building deep in my chest at the very thought.
Just to show you a taste of the horror of inflation, the Labor Department said, "Weekly earnings of workers, adjusted for inflation, rose 0.1 percent in December after rising in November by 0.8 percent." Hahaha! If you use the ridiculous "core rate" of inflation to dilute the buying power of nominal wage increases, then workers are essentially standing still! But if you devalue those wages by the real rate of inflation, which is running somewhere north of 7% (a number that I randomly pick from the air because it seems "right"), then US workers are suffering a huge drop in their standards of living.
This is manifested in having to make the choice of buying less stuff every week, or going further into debt every week. Whoopee...
And what accounts for this drop in prices that only government statisticians can see? They rounded up some unnamed "economists" to explain. "Discounts on automobiles and markdowns to lure holiday shoppers,"
they figured, "probably held down the consumer price index last month." Hahahaha! Lower prices to hold a big store-wide sale brings prices down? Wow! No wonder these geniuses make the big money...
But to be fair, it is not only government wonks and unnamed "economists" that say stupid things. How about "the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll of economists taken Dec. 23 to Jan. 8," which breezily announces, "Price gains for all [US] goods and services may slow to
2.8 percent this year as fuel prices stabilise."
Hahaha! Fuel prices stabilising? Hahaha! What a comedy of the absurd!
Apparently, these guys do not share the same crystal ball as Kurt Wulffounder, of McDep Associates, whom Matt Badiali quotes as saying, "We'll have $150 per barrel oil by 2010."
And you can bet that Iran is not setting up a new oil- trading centre so that they can sell cheaper oil to Americans and the British!
Toni Straka, of the PrudentInvestor.blogspot.com, says that he is tired of hearing about
1.) Inflation in fuel costs...and
2.) About me trying to borrow five lousy bucks for some petrol.
Inflation, he says, is a function of what you use as money. "Would you pay your crude oil bill in the universally accepted currency of the last 6,000 years - commonly known as gold - your barrel would have become 28.4% percent cheaper since the nominal record high reached last August."
Thus, the value of a stable currency is again demonstrated, this time as less inflation at the pump.
And if we are talking about pricing oil in ounces of silver, it is cheaper yet.
See why I am always yelling about how only gold and silver should be used as money?
For those of you who like your market indicators moving in a more glacial vein, Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters writes, "From a Dow Theory standpoint, the [US] markets continue to face a major non- confirmation in the Averages. The Transports have risen to new record highs while the Dow has failed month after month to confirm. Thus, from a Dow Theory standpoint, this is a dangerous market. It's particularly dangerous because of this truly spectacular divergence and non- confirmation in the Averages."
Now, as today's obligatory lesson containing real "educational content", let's analyse this linguistically. First off, we note that he uses the adjectives "major", "record", and then "dangerous" - twice - and ends up with the word "spectacular". What was the author saying?
Well, I could call him up on the phone and ask him, but I am far too lazy and far too cheap to do that for one thing. And for another thing, I can just read his mind with my Amazing Mogambo Paranormal Abilities (AMPA).
Like thus...
I close my eyes. I concentrate. I send out waves of mental energy, locking onto his mind, sort of like a Vulcan mind-meld. I probe his mind. Probe. Probe.
Finally, I see what he means...
"Get up and buy gold, silver, platinum and oil, because these are the kind of tremors that happen at the Big Moment When The Tides Turn (BMWTTT)!
Regards,
The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Yes..! Nice one Mark – respect to Mogambo Guru and maybe the “Big Moment When The Tides Turn” is just coming – a potential financial Tsunami…?!
The markets have been in a very tight range for over 2 years, clearly a breakout must come shortly..
Maybe that catalyst is just about to happen….!
Different timeframes highlight different patterns – part of the inv H & S suggested in the weekly timeframe takes on a negative emphasis when examined on the daily chart…
When the breakout comes it’s gonna be BIG imho….!….
The markets have been in a very tight range for over 2 years, clearly a breakout must come shortly..
Maybe that catalyst is just about to happen….!
Different timeframes highlight different patterns – part of the inv H & S suggested in the weekly timeframe takes on a negative emphasis when examined on the daily chart…
When the breakout comes it’s gonna be BIG imho….!….
Attachments
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Big Al pushed the whipsaw button for the last time….and at least the markets were within a stones throw of recent highs at the time…
But one could almost sense the big boyz loading up their shorts at that last obliging flourish up to 940 resistance….so it was plainly best to join in for a very quick 50+…
Despite the volatility, last nights triangle target still applies imho and the futs are getting close post market -next objective could be to fill that gap at 750ish - just on the basis that markets don't like uncertainty.....?!
Big Al operates the whipsaw button for the last time….(pic)
But one could almost sense the big boyz loading up their shorts at that last obliging flourish up to 940 resistance….so it was plainly best to join in for a very quick 50+…
Despite the volatility, last nights triangle target still applies imho and the futs are getting close post market -next objective could be to fill that gap at 750ish - just on the basis that markets don't like uncertainty.....?!
Could be down to the strange company he keeps..!(pic)
Big Al operates the whipsaw button for the last time….(pic)
Attachments
TheBramble
Legendary member
- Messages
- 8,394
- Likes
- 1,170
Actually, it's not the whipsaw 'button' at all.tradesmart said:
The 'Whipsaw Whacker' is a large leather-clad lever I operate from under my desk.
In the picture you provided, I was merely logging in to t2w to make this post.
Did someone say 10759...
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Monday 30th
And the previous 850 triangle target was hit pre-market, so I guess it did ‘work’…
But an unexpectedly bullish open today well above the futures low gave a clue that last nights closing tank was just another fake out…they like them…!......
Most of the day spent testing the 940 resistance level, then in the last hour Wall Streeters were plainly long stocks/short oil and the breakout came to go most of the way towards filling the gap to just under 11000….and of course there is another gap under the recent high at 11080ish that might be remembered…!
If this move is genuine bull, 11150 could be in the frame on the 'measured move' basis……
Looks like it now....
And the previous 850 triangle target was hit pre-market, so I guess it did ‘work’…
But an unexpectedly bullish open today well above the futures low gave a clue that last nights closing tank was just another fake out…they like them…!......
Most of the day spent testing the 940 resistance level, then in the last hour Wall Streeters were plainly long stocks/short oil and the breakout came to go most of the way towards filling the gap to just under 11000….and of course there is another gap under the recent high at 11080ish that might be remembered…!
If this move is genuine bull, 11150 could be in the frame on the 'measured move' basis……
That’s enough detail for now Brambs…
Attachments
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Wednesday:-
Clearly not.....!......
Wednesday's attempted breakout looked hopeful, but the market breadth wasn't there - most of the Dow was in the red and apparently it was just Boeing and Altria pushing it so the move up failed.
The market action just now seems to be a volatile mix of gap opens, fake outs and stop-runs with a downwards bias.......many corporations are disappointing the analysts..!
A close at the lows today, and it looks like the next almost unavoidable target is to fill the gap at around 750, maybe early next week....
Clearly not.....!......
Wednesday's attempted breakout looked hopeful, but the market breadth wasn't there - most of the Dow was in the red and apparently it was just Boeing and Altria pushing it so the move up failed.
The market action just now seems to be a volatile mix of gap opens, fake outs and stop-runs with a downwards bias.......many corporations are disappointing the analysts..!
A close at the lows today, and it looks like the next almost unavoidable target is to fill the gap at around 750, maybe early next week....
Attachments
counter_violent
Legendary member
- Messages
- 12,672
- Likes
- 3,787
Weekly Candles. Odd shaped expanding wedge now........ failure to make new high ........something must give ........the elastic will break .....Let the Bad Times Roll .....
C V
C V
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Plenty of scope for getting whipsawed – is Alan still operating the red button in retirement….? – or perhaps his new employer, Gordon Brown is lending a hand…?!...
When in doubt it draws a triangle - 50 high so that could be the target from the breakpoint..
And I’m remembering that big gap under, down to 740ish shown on the 10min chart above– it could be significant….(maybe..!)..
When in doubt it draws a triangle - 50 high so that could be the target from the breakpoint..
And I’m remembering that big gap under, down to 740ish shown on the 10min chart above– it could be significant….(maybe..!)..
Attachments
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Posted above in a nick of time - Going down fast now - when it tanks, it really tanks..!
I hope you had a chance to get a short on........
I hope you had a chance to get a short on........
solentsurfer
Active member
- Messages
- 110
- Likes
- 3
Managed a nice 45 points but bottled it now - suspect it may go further but not sure enough to hold.
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Yes, Solentsurfer, good trading…!
And there’s certainly something in taking a good profit when it presents itself ‘cos you can’t be sure what it’s going to do next….
Yes and no – it hit 750 in no time but then got a bit messy with a reversal that initially looked like a bear flag, but spiked to test 790 again which would have been many traders entry point…! – some probably stopped out for zilch having seen 40 points disappear..
Definitely a stop-run imho, and of course, timed at 14.30EST it gave the big boyz who had just had their lunch a chance to load up with shorts at a ‘high’ – very considerate….!..
And then an almost inevitable 40+ point tank to test the lows of the day sub-750 to just about fill the gap…!
The triangle target was hit within about 5 points…..
Attachments
solentsurfer
Active member
- Messages
- 110
- Likes
- 3
tradesmart said:
Just wish I'd seen the inevitability... would have turned a good day into a great day. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
A very bullish open today signalled when the index rose away from the opening gap leaving it unfilled (for the time being…)
Basically up all the way apart from a midday consolidation triangle around the 820 pivot which provided the target for the 880 ‘top’….
Likely consolidation or reversal tomorrow could provide the target for the next move…but note that gap at 770 – it will be remembered soon imho……
Basically up all the way apart from a midday consolidation triangle around the 820 pivot which provided the target for the 880 ‘top’….
Likely consolidation or reversal tomorrow could provide the target for the next move…but note that gap at 770 – it will be remembered soon imho……
Attachments
Bigbusiness
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,408
- Likes
- 23
Isn't there a gap up near 10,950? Who knows, that one might be filled first.
