The FTSE

Energy sector was main contributor to US falls so watch out FTSE...

Also CAC with Total as its biggest weight will also be vulnerable
 
Morning all,
Not really much to add to UK's superb commentary, thanks UK.
I look as indices in a slightly different way to UK so here is my take:

15 minutes to go before the open and the SB'ers are calling UKX down about 25, DAX about 40.
So we have the DOW effect of 133 down built in. I see a similar scenario to yesterday, all be it in reverse.
An untradeable opening drop (it is already there) and then a steady recovery.

My key figures are:
5139 as a support / break out pivot. If we dont drop too far below that then I can see a bounce possible as far as 90.
Conversely if we drop below 5120 then we are in potential free-fall to around 5085.

As usual I shall be watching the open but not trading it, I rarely do! I shall wait for the first clear change of direction and then attempt to trade the swings.

Yesterday was interesting but not particularly profitable. Yes we got the opening bounce as I suspected and then trailed lower in a small (and difficult to find breakouts to make money) 20 point range until the US open. then dropped to the close.

Good luck to all
Dave
 
Hi mates,

Of late I have been scalping a bit in FTSE100. Was stuck in a short position in low 5200 for the last 3 months or so. But this last month have been selling it for quick profits. Basically I just kept adding to my original short postion when the chart I monitor showed FTSE was over bought. Nothin fancy. I look at the 4 hour, 1 hour for the general trend and then 15 mins and 5 minutes for entry signals. Since I already was short to begin with I could not take any more longterm positions. So the stretegy was to sell into small rallies and get out before closing for the day. Must say I scalped about 175 points from 5400 to 5180 where I closed my original postion as well. Now looking at it with new eyes. ;)

Also scalped a bit in the ASX200. Sold once my 4-hour (at 4540) showed overbought and bought it back when it got stuck in the 4400 area. Then relaxed a day or two and put in a limit sell at 4450 and squared it last week at 4350.

Just my two cents.

Oh just for information I use MACD and Stochastics to give me an idea if the market is overbought/oversold. Not an exact science but it works reasonably well when markets are overbought or oversold. As I said the 4-hour and 1-hour to see if the market is ready to turn and 15-min and 5-mins for entry signals.
 
evenin'

ftse on the cusp?

good trading

jon
 

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Dildubai said:
Hi mates,

Of late I have been scalping a bit in FTSE100. Was stuck in a short position in low 5200 for the last 3 months or so. But this last month have been selling it for quick profits. Basically I just kept adding to my original short postion when the chart I monitor showed FTSE was over bought. Nothin fancy. I look at the 4 hour, 1 hour for the general trend and then 15 mins and 5 minutes for entry signals. Since I already was short to begin with I could not take any more longterm positions. So the stretegy was to sell into small rallies and get out before closing for the day. Must say I scalped about 175 points from 5400 to 5180 where I closed my original postion as well. Now looking at it with new eyes. ;)

Also scalped a bit in the ASX200. Sold once my 4-hour (at 4540) showed overbought and bought it back when it got stuck in the 4400 area. Then relaxed a day or two and put in a limit sell at 4450 and squared it last week at 4350.

Just my two cents.

Oh just for information I use MACD and Stochastics to give me an idea if the market is overbought/oversold. Not an exact science but it works reasonably well when markets are overbought or oversold. As I said the 4-hour and 1-hour to see if the market is ready to turn and 15-min and 5-mins for entry signals.

Hi Dildubai,

If it works, work it to death!

Thanks for your input

UK
 
The FTSE Monday, 24th October 2005

Fridays results:

Open: 5164.

Close: 5142, down 22pts. Also a drop of 133pts for the week.

Range: 5130 - 5164. It did pretty much as was anticipated. Even so, it was damned difficult to make any profit. Up 7 pts.

Dow: 10,215, down 65pts.

News items of note:

Worth a read:

http://uk.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/051021/fto102120051738164033.html?.v=1

Also:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8211-1838323,00.html

Forbes.com 'Some of the nation's biggest, most successful companies have posted very good third-quarter earnings, yet their stocks have been punished for lackluster profit forecasts. And that has the major indexes whipsawing - a trend likely to continue in the week ahead.

Wall Street's focus is always on the future and the potential for strong profits. The problem with earnings reports is that, no matter how good they are, they're already well in the past. Corporate profit forecasts are far more important, especially amid economic uncertainty.

There's plenty of economic uncertainty weighing on investors. Growing evidence suggests the economy has weathered high energy prices, and could continue to adapt through the winter. A drop in crude oil prices to the $60-per-barrel level was also a positive sign. Yet members of the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee spoke issued a barrage of inflation warnings last week, and intimated that the Fed won't be done raising rates any time soon.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday stated a rise, which it didn't. Tomorrow, a small fall.

Companies reporting: Data not available at time of writing

Economic data: Data not available at time of writing.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the market has been hammered this month, which was not totally unpredicted; charts say a fall, which I consider fair; the DOW's down, this should add a 12pt opening drop to the FTSE; nothing in the news to raise a smile. I see the FTSE down by 8pts at end of play.

Early gut feeling: mixed feelings.

Will I bet? No. I've been reading an abundance of news this weekend which has filled my overworked head with mixtures of economic doom and contrary reasons for a market rise. Also, I have a tendency to steer well clear of Mondays. I recommend you do also.

Putting my previous thoughts and predictions on the table: I did say that Oil would rise, at the moment it has dropped; I'm still confident the black stuff will rise again; the first three days of last week would denote the rest of the month - its looking as though I may be correct on that statement.

There are a number of market annalists [as I am] questioning the prolonged and heavy market drop, down 352pts since October 3rd. But historically, for the month, it happens quite a lot [see a previous post]. As to why, simply put, most of the larger FTSE companies have already posted there annual results, and thus, buyers have already made their financial bed. What we have seen of late is an element of panic selling based on high Oil prices [which have since dropped] and debatable long term economic gloom. So what about the coming weeks?

The Markets are a hive of potential profit making, always have been. If the FTSE drops this coming week [which I believe it will] it wont be by much. Come November, the Bulls will be looking to re-invest there cancelled buys. But, November is historically a similar month in terms of reduced activity as to October, assuming October has been neutral [but its been negative]. So, all things been even, we should see November climb between 149 -287 points to make up a minor difference. Lets see.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
The FTSE Tuesday, 25th October 2005

Mondays results:

Open: 5142.

Close: 5207, up a handsome 65pts.

Range: 5140 - 5210. I did well to keep out of the market considering I had a gut feeling of a small down.

Dow: 10,385, up 169pts.

News items of note:

LONDON (Reuters) - 'Christmas comes but once a year, but retailers are doing their best to make it come earlier and last longer than ever before. Following a tough year that has seen a host of profit warnings from some of the top names on the British high street, this holiday season -- a time at which many retailers make the bulk of annual profits -- will be more crucial than ever before.Consequently, traditional present retailers including WH Smith <SMWH.L> and Woolworths <WLW.L> have begun some seasonal marketing. Others such as Bhs department stores have already gone into fully fledged Christmas-selling mode.' - A touch sad really. It seems Christmas comes earlier every year, and with each coming year it becomes less like Christmas. If retailers had their way, we would be buying Xmas trees and turkey in June.
Forbes.com - 'Around the country, senior bankers and asset managers breathed a sigh of relief with the nomination of Ben Bernanke to lead the Federal Reserve. Earlier this summer, Wall Street was buzzing that one of its own might fill Alan Greenspan's shoes. But more recently, the likelihood of an untraditional nominee seemed "untenable," one banker explained, especially following the nomination of Harriet Miers to the U.S. Supreme Court. What is it that puts bankers' minds at ease? Bernanke indicated in remarks from the Oval Office today that he wouldn't rock the boat by messing with Greenspan-era monetary policy.' - As we have seen, the American Markets certainly tipped there hats to this news.

Forbes.com - 'Crude-oil futures fell Monday as Hurricane Wilma crashed ashore in Florida, avoiding already battered Gulf of Mexico oil producing and refining facilities. Analysts also said perceptions of relatively plentiful supply contributed to the downward trend. Light, sweet crude for December delivery slipped 63 cents to $60 a barrel in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude futures on the International Petroleum Exchange in London also eased, falling 77 cents to $57.71 a barrel.' - Silly me, here's me thinking that the oil companies weren't producing enough to meet demand and therefore oil prices would rise!

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday indicated a small fall. Tomorrow, a small climb.

Companies reporting:

BP BP.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Carpetright CPR.L UK Trading Pre Mkt
P&O PO.L UK Trading Pre Mkt
Reckitt Benckiser RB.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Westbury WBY.L UK H1 Pre Mkt
Whitbread WTB.L UK H1 Pre Mkt

Sufficient to add impetus to the market.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: a good result from BP [and I don't know of any reason why not] will lift all the Oil related companies; DOW is well up; charts say a rise. I see some more leg room for the FTSE tomorrow.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? I have a day off tomorrow so I'll be watching the markets opening. I'll make my decision by 8am.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
FTSE- TODAY's trade

ukhero said:
Hi Dildubai,

If it works, work it to death!

Thanks for your input

UK
Thanks mate. That was a tactic born out of frustration at being caught in a bad position. But after a couple of forays into shorting the FTSE I got the hang of it. Today my charts are giving me a broad hint to sell once it starts trading below 5196. I am sure that can yield 25 gbp before I pack up for the day.

Have a look at the Macd, And Slow Stochs mate. Both default. It looks like an invitation to a party tonitght. But make your own judgements before entering. I will sell once it goes below 5196 and keep a stop only after it goes back above 5215. perhaps a stop in the 5230 area. 5232 was the high seen on oct 20. that looks like good protection. But you go according to your equity and risk appetite mates. This is what I am doing. Just for information.

Will take profit around 5170 or better if I see better before I go home tonight.

Dildubai
 
hi guys. Sold FTSE at 5195 as per plan. Now fingers crossed and looking for 5170 at least. But not too greedy. Will get out around my closing time regardless of where the market is, so long as it is in profit.

Dildubai :D :D
 
anyone else seeing the reverse head and shoulders on the ftse...
low at 5125 sholders at 5160-80 pther one...5185

5225 to confirm imo...
 
FTSE- Today's trade

Well mates. Win some lose some.

Today's trade was very disappointing. Just got out at 5194 with a net profit of 1 point only.

Well tomorrow is another day and if there is another set up like that tomorrow I might go in again and will definitely post my trade.

Cheers mate. Good trades to all of you out there.

Dildubai
 
Dildubai said:
Thanks mate. That was a tactic born out of frustration at being caught in a bad position. But after a couple of forays into shorting the FTSE I got the hang of it. Today my charts are giving me a broad hint to sell once it starts trading below 5196. I am sure that can yield 25 gbp before I pack up for the day.

Have a look at the Macd, And Slow Stochs mate. Both default. It looks like an invitation to a party tonitght. But make your own judgements before entering. I will sell once it goes below 5196 and keep a stop only after it goes back above 5215. perhaps a stop in the 5230 area. 5232 was the high seen on oct 20. that looks like good protection. But you go according to your equity and risk appetite mates. This is what I am doing. Just for information.

Will take profit around 5170 or better if I see better before I go home tonight.

Dildubai

All noted.

As I've quoted before, I'm a news man in relation to the FTSE, and I only bet when I'm 75% certain as to the markets direction, hence I'm staying out today.

Hope you did well.

UK
 
The FTSE Wednesday, 26th October 2005

Tuesdays results:

Open: 5207.

Close: 5182, down 25pts.

Range: 5182 - 5222. I wasn't overly confident of the markets direction yesterday so I stayed well clear.

Dow: 10,377, down 25pts.

News items of note:

NEW YORK (AP) - 'Crude oil futures rallied above $62 US a barrel Tuesday on worries that a cold winter could raise U.S. demand for heating oil, putting a strain on storm-ravaged oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Light, sweet crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.93 to $62.25 a barrel in afternoon trading. In London, December Brent crude futures rose $1.86 to $60.10 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Heating oil rose more than nine cents to $1.8925 a gallon, while gasoline rose more than eight cents to $1.6650 a gallon. Natural gas rose $1.12 to $14.11 per million British thermal units.

Prices had dropped Monday after hurricane Wilma spared oil refineries, platforms and rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, which are still recovering from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Wilma crashed ashore instead in Florida.

Much of the gains Tuesday came from "a lot of speculative buying," said Ed Silliere, vice-president of risk management at Energy Merchant LLC in New York. But, he added, heating oil led the rally due to forecasts of a long, cold winter.' - Could my prediction of $70 before Christmas be about right? I've studied the long range weather forecasts for the UK and it looks damned cold for Jan, Feb and March.

Just in:

Money Weekly - 'The Met Office has issued a warning that this winter could be the coldest for a decade, with predictions of long periods where the temperature will not rise above freezing. The cold will come as a shock after the mild winters, we've experienced as a results of global warming. Coupled with gas shortages, there are worries that industry will be hit, as supplies are cut or limited to ensure there is enough gas for people to heat their homes.' - Good news if you have shares in utility companies.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday indicated a small climb. That's four days in a row my charts have got it wrong! Tomorrow, a rise.

Companies reporting:

Antofagasta ANTO.L UK Q3 Output Pre Mkt
Egg EGG.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
First Choice FCD.L UK Trading Pre Mkt
Prudential PRU.N UK Q3 Sales Pre Mkt

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: watch the utility companies this week; yesterdays rise in oil price might kick in tomorrow; the DOW's down.

Early gut feeling: a 60% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? No.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
FTSE-Today?

Gud day guys,

Just logged in. My first impression about the FTSE today is that it is getting ready for another decline again. But waiting for confirmation of the signal. For what it is worth I think 5192 should hold on the upside for a move down soon. Again I am not looking to make my monthly or yearly budget from one trade so will just look for about 25 points if I can get it. Will put a stop above 5206 resistance point on. Break below 5188 would be a signal for me to jump in.

Good trades to all. Have a great day.

cheers
 
Its almost over, Dildubai.

Hope your stop gap kicked in. Trading at 5234 at the moment.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE Thursday, 27th October 2005

Wednesdays results:

Open: 5182.

Close: 5227, up 45pts.

Range: 5182 - 5236.

Dow: 10,344, down 32pts.

News items of note:

TEHRAN (Reuters) - 'Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday Israel should be "wiped off the map," the official IRNA news agency reported, dampening hopes Iran could temper its hostility toward the Jewish state.' - Thats one heavy statement and not one that America will drink too. Iran has been slated several times over the past 3 months for its 'suspected involvement in training and supplying Iraq militants, not to mention its refusal to curb its Nuclear activities. As I've said before, watch all news related issues regarding Iran.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday indicated a rise. Hurray! They got it right.Tomorrow, a small rise.

Companies reporting:

Amvescap AVZ.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Astrazeneca AZN.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Aviva AV.L UK Q3 New Biz Pre Mkt
Bat BATS.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
BHP Billiton BLT.L UK Q1 Output Pre Mkt
Boots BOOT.L UK H1 Pre Mkt
Close Brothers CBG.L UK AGM Pre Mkt
Go-Ahead GOG.l UK AGM Pre Mkt
Glaxosmithkline GSK.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Reuters RTR.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Shell RDSa.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt
Smith & Nephew SN.L UK Q3 Pre Mkt

We have some realy big companies reporting 3rd quarter results tomorrow, and I believe November will hinge on there outcome. Personally, I'm expecting a collection of good rather then bad News.


The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the DOW's down and the FTSE may fall initialy followed by a strong rise; charts see a rise.

Early gut feeling: a 70% chance of a rise.

Will I bet? I'll wait until the market settles before I leap in.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

yours

UK
 
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