FTSE 100 - March 2005

March thread open for business, please don't all rush at once.

Time for our bears to tell us if they are still wearing their furry garments or have changed into something a little more comfortable.

and by the same token are the bulls pawing tjhe ground of gently chewing the cud.

Regards

bracke

My take? - August up trend channel still firmly intact but we're in no-man's land.

Daily chart - todays close just north of the channel mid-line, touching 40dma well above 50dma. Top of channel at about 5100, bottom at 4885. Macd says more downside yet, RSI ambivalent but no real neg div signifying a serious down move either.

90 min chart interesting. Clear down regression channel formed but still only 84% with today's close right at the top. RSI neutral.

All eyes on the US where there's yet another attempt at that 10850 level in progress and an ascending trend line through the lows from October last year rising to meet it. Prices confined and v close to the interection so we will see a break soon - maybe this week. Pattern odds say up and with such established resistance, if it does break it will fly (possibly crash and burn soon after but.....); RSI and MACD not much help. Lots of commentators looking for a major top.

So, appart from a few STRICTLY intra-day dabbles with the DOW I'll just sit it out until things become clear.

I'd like to see the FTSE above 5100 before I went short-there is way too much money floating around-and we know how daft fund managers get in the spring-throwing themselves onto the road in the path of your car (or is that squirrels?)

Windlesham1 said:

I'd like to see the FTSE above 5100 before I went short-there is way too much money floating around-and we know how daft fund managers get in the spring-throwing themselves onto the road in the path of your car (or is that squirrels?)

Click to expand...

Yep - Spring can have a funny effect. BUT - I seem to recall, very recently, reading an FT survey that had average fund managers' cash holdings at around just 4% - an historic low. Granted cash may be flowing into funds right now but they'd have to flow pretty damn quick for it to impact greatly on that 4% - which doesn't leave much scope for them to reduce equity exposure significantly without some big-time selling. It is unlikely that they will deem it prudent to hold even LESS cash.

Not suggesting such rebalancing is immanent of course, just that there a whole lot of parameters that suggest we are far nearer a major top than a major bottom - and that's just one of them.

Bump and Run update – the steep ‘bump’ uptrend line was broken and has resulted in a 100 point or so 'run' reversal, but the FTSE is now finding support on the top uptrend channel line originating from March 03, also reflected on RSI….

I reckon that we’ll see another test of the recent highs shortly……

morning all.

another day, still bearish.


looking for a retest of 4850 before i join the bull camp.

interesting both the Dow and now the FTSE are aligned, cycle-wise..

both on a Short Sell day.

gone short at 5002.

longer-term, well, i think we may have the top for the year in...

but then again, i do need this bearskin coat in winter..

Weekly chart - a solid 500 point wide regression channel in place since March 2003. Price has just touched the top of it again for the first time in 12 months. To remain within the channel and hit the major 5200 resistance and congestion from spring 2002 would take us to about 20th May next. Prices presently further above 50pma since channel started so a fairly considerable retrace should be expected (say 100-150 points) even if this 2 year trend is to continue. RSI just turned down from record high and still above 70, but no neg div yet.

Daily chart - August channel still very much intact. Price bouncing off centre line so far this week. RSI neutral. Best guess if TC remains consistent is for 5100 around 15th March but could easily dip below centre line and test the lower boundary first, which would push 5100 further ahead..

BUT - will both channels remain consistent and intact?

Odds pretty much always favour continuation but the length of both is shortening the odds somewhat! Visually there seems little chance of either trend accelerating, so I'm still on the sidelines. The whole thing does have the feel of a major topping pattern forming, but they can of course involve major spike and reverse moves, so I'll be watching for a serious breach of the upper boundaries - especially on the August daily chart. In any event I reckon there is a 200 point maximum upside possible for this year from here, with a much MUCH larger downside risk.

I'll be confining my position trading to shorts from rallies for the forseeable future.

looks like we hit a short term top to me?

also note the hidden divergance on the MACD. implies a retrace rather than change of trend.



FC

Interesting that the regression channel from August represents a journey from the bottom to the top boundaries of the same channel from March 2003. These are not manually drawn channels but represent the median and +/- 2 standard deviation lines calculated from all the bars in the channels.

Downside potential looks greater than upside on a 1 - 2 week view but beware of a possible reversal spike.

mornin' all - how's it going?

Been away again, birding in Norfolk this time. In view of the weather it was appropriate that the bird of the week was an Arctic Redpoll at Titchwell.

Looks like a good bit of support building at around 970.

I was triggered in long at 507 (almost high of the day ) on Friday and then stopped out at 970 (almost low of the day ) on Monday. Irritating particularly since I don't like entering on a Friday and holding over the weekend. Long again from 995 at the moment.

good trading

jon

Afternoon barjon

The Twitcher Returns

After reading your post I strongly suspect that you have strong masochistic tendencies.

You voluntarily (or were ropes and chains involved) go to the wilds of Norfolk in freezing weather to stand around peering at birds. Whilst at the same time leaving trading orders on a Friday resulting in a weekend hold. Really barjon how could you even an Artic Redpoll would know better.

Your second trade looks better, have you closed it yet or are you waiting until the cuckoo sings.

Regards

bracke

I stand duly admonished monsieur-le-bracke. Still hanging in there with most of it.

Not only went voluntarily, but got freezing cold and wet voluntarily too despite so many layers I could hardly swing my arms to raise the binos. On top of that a leg of my telescope tripod snapped off but my kind wife (who's just made a few bob on Glaxo) paid top dollar for a replacement. And now I've got a streaming cold . Still that all knowing Arctic Redpoll made it all worthwhile - a lifer for me and I don't get many of those nowadays.

good trading

jon

barjon said:

I stand duly admonished monsieur-le-bracke. Still hanging in there with most of it.

Not only went voluntarily, but got freezing cold and wet voluntarily too despite so many layers I could hardly swing my arms to raise the binos. On top of that a leg of my telescope tripod snapped off but my kind wife (who's just made a few bob on Glaxo) paid top dollar for a replacement. And now I've got a streaming cold . Still that all knowing Arctic Redpoll made it all worthwhile - a lifer for me and I don't get many of those nowadays.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

A good outing then ! Just as well Mrs barjon has her set-up sorted.

In the freezing weather you were fortunate that it was only the leg of your tripod that snapped off.

Are you intending to hold over the weekend ?

Regards

de bracke

Thought I might give you a change from candles tonight (save that for later ) and put up the swing chart since the trend changed to up in late September.

The 2 false starts (red) would have cost you around 80 points. If you'd taken the first swing low at around 4585 (you'd have already been in at around this level if you'd taken the earlier 28/9 swing low) and the 3 additions you'd still be in to the tune of some 1100 points.

Mind you the second addition (green) was a bit messy and you may have missed out on it although it shouldn't have caused you to close out what you already had running.

Easy old game isn't it

good trading

jon

barjon,
Easy?, yes, when you know how. I find it very difficult, always feel that any winning trades were due to pure luck and any losing trades were down to lack of knowledge and or patience.
However, always picking up new helpful knowledge rom other members of the thread.
Someday, I am sure, I will be able to contribute as well

oops - who pulled the rug?

Let me know when you find out.
MJ

Oil price rising, survey shows confidence among London companies falling. Don't Panic, not until I find my life jacket. O k got it on....PANIC ! Women and children first . I'm a lady.

Regards

bracke

In addition to my previous post should have mentioned that oil price rise had caused dow futures to fall.

Regards

bracke

i am short again! at 4993, shoul see a few points. Dow did not make a serious attempt to breach 11,000. S&P below 1220.