GOOG - Long or Short......?!

Naz · Jan 21, 2005

There are lots of guys i know trading that first hour on the Nasdaq,like EBAY yesterday,all the action was in the first hour.Approx $86-$82 and back to $85.then complete choppiness.There was $7 of movement in two major moves,then it went sideways.

Wiggles and giggles are hard, straight moves are a gem,but i believe some new traders are frightened of these strong first hour moves because of inferior trading platforms they're using and start trading when everything slows down.

For me its not cheap executions you want but the best execution platform.Whats the point of saving $3-$5 on a trade,that equates to well under a 1c movement in a stock for the average trader.A good execution package will make that and more every trade.The faster a stock moves the more this becomes a bigger factor.So when you reach a stock like GOOG its a very big factor.

There are also good and bad level 2 screens,i will gladly give any offer any opinion if someone sends me a screen shot.PM me for any details of that.

The chart is EBAY's first hour move yesterday.

Naz

timsk · Jan 21, 2005

Tradesmart,
Like Mr. C', I enjoy and value your posts - normally. Your reply to Richard was witty and cordial at the start and then went downhill. And that's a shame. I fail to see what purpose is served by traders with knowledge, experience and much to offer the T2W community, 'having a go' at one another? Very little in my opinion.
I look forward to more posts from you - and Richard - on how to trade GOOG profitably.
Tim.

tradesmart · Jan 21, 2005

Well orlrite, orlrite Guv, it’s a fair cop……

But ‘vendors’ posts are going to be scrutinised carefully, and relevant questions asked/ comments made if any inconsistencies are apparent, and I would suggest that this is a healthy tendency…….?

And I want to make it quite clear to Richard that I’m not anti-coach…

I’ve ridden on some quite nice ones in my time……

Anyway – onto GOOG – clearly any suggestion of a $215 target is on hold for now with the current bearish bias in the market…

Maybe $205 was GOOG’s zenith, and we may be well advised to keep an eye on that mega gap between $150/$160 crying out to be filled…..

knucklehead · Jan 21, 2005

jcwonder8 said:
Remember there's a lot of shares to free up from the lock-up and results due on Feb 1. Wouldnt' it be a surprise if they knock it out of the park, again.

Never heard of buy the rumour, Sell the news !!! What ever the results it will be Sell !!!

It's at support and doesn't look good to me ! With the general market bearish, it's a trading suicide buy !!! Just give me your money and I'll save it and give it you back ....Onest !!!

Click to expand...

Naz · Jan 22, 2005

More on playing momentum moves and the difference your L2 trading platform makes.

Shot 1 is a black and white L2 time and sales with b or a indicating where the trades are taking place.

Shot 2 is a colour L2 time and sales with trades at the bid in red and trades at the ask in green,block red is where they're paying less than the bid to get out and block green is where they're paying more than the ask.

Maybe its me but i think i get more info in colour.
When things are moving i just want a glance at whats happening,an instant snapshot.Colour gives me that.Black and white is fine if things are slower and i've got more time to study all the b's and a's going through,but alas not for me.

In my opinion,if you've got black and white you're loosing an edge that others have got and less likely to get involved with momentum trades where you can earn a days money wth one move.

jcwonder8 · Jan 26, 2005

knucklehead please return my money sent to you as requested, the goog is going over 200 in short order!
Quick question for nas players here:
Ive always entered limit orders for nasdaq stocks but have a new volatility expansion strategy ready to go (halfbaked from half-understood trading volumes) and its frustrating having to renter the orders or enter over the ask to get a fill. I 've never entered market orders on nasdaq stocks because of rumoured bad fills delayed orders etc but is this true in market orders for stocks trading 1m+ volume? It would be much easier to just hit the market order button.
Any thoughts?

Mr. Charts · Jan 27, 2005

jcwonder8,
I usually enter and exit longs on a market order.
If the ask depth is a bit thin I do sometimes use limits in a fast market, but not with GOOG.
GOOG moves extremely fast and you do need direct access of course. A good example is a trade from a few days ago where I went long GOOG and exited on market orders. I've attached the broker execution screen of my first two trades on that day and you can see the GOOG trade was very brief, under a minute in fact. So even in a stock moving through $1.40 in seconds you do get very fast fills - at least with my direct access broker.
I hope this re-assures you it is not difficult to successfully use market orders once you've gained some experience.
Richard

jcwonder8 · Jan 27, 2005

Mr. Charts said:
jcwonder8,
I usually enter and exit longs on a market order.
If the ask depth is a bit thin I do sometimes use limits in a fast market, but not with GOOG.
GOOG moves extremely fast and you do need direct access of course. A good example is a trade from a few days ago where I went long GOOG and exited on market orders. I've attached the broker execution screen of my first two trades on that day and you can see the GOOG trade was very brief, under a minute in fact. So even in a stock moving through $1.40 in seconds you do get very fast fills - at least with my direct access broker.
I hope this re-assures you it is not difficult to successfully use market orders once you've gained some experience.
Richard

thanks for that Mr Charts, that is exactly what I wanted to know.

tradesmart · Jan 31, 2005

The 60 min chart is clearly showing that GOOG is observing a shallow uptrend channel making a succession of higher lows and higher highs….

The channel is c.$30 high and a break north or south of the trendlines offers the potential to deliver a $30 target from the breakpoint imho........

Also notable that the RSI waves from PD bottom to ND top plainly offer the most lucrative way to trade this stock imho, and I now note that GOOG is a shortable stock via IB….(about time too……!…….)

An apparent reversal at around $195 last week, so watching developments closely…..

ps - GOOG News:-

Google will report its fourth quarter results after the bell Tuesday (1st Feb) and it is safe to say that Wall Street is anticipating a blowout quarter.

There is one more factor could cause Google's shares to be volatile in the coming weeks. The last, and biggest, lock-up period for shares owned by insiders will expire on Feb. 14. At that point, nearly 177 million shares will be eligible to hit the market.

But it remains to be seen just how many shares will actually be sold. Several top executives have filed pre-arranged selling plans, which should minimize some of the downward pressure on the stock.

tradesmart · Feb 1, 2005

GOOG after hours (chart attached...)

The results went down well.......!

That $215 target doesn't seem so far-fetched now........

frugi · Feb 1, 2005

Blimey look at that candle around 21:05 with a low at 184 and a high at 198. If there's no data glitch (results presumably?) some lucky Immanuel took 1400 pips in one minute

tradesmart · Feb 2, 2005

You see..?, some people just have a gift for this sort of thing.........(snapshot attached..)

Regards, Mystic Meg

ps - multi-dollar moves assured today imho

LION63 · Feb 2, 2005

Those that trade these shares overnight must have DEEP POCKETS and nerves of STEEL. They gapped up 13%; some have made a king's ransom whilst others have lost their shirts. Sadly, I am one of those on the outside looking in.

tradesmart · Feb 8, 2005

Volatile times for GOOG shareholders with a tantalising surge north out of the established $30 channel to meet the $215 target mentioned above; only to collapse $20 south to fill the huge gap left by the bull’s exuberance….

There are currently a lot of psychological pressures on this stock:-

For the bulls –

Credit Suisse First Boston holds the Henry Blodget Cup for most bullish call to date, having slapped a $275 price target on the shares, which jumped 14 percent Wednesday to close at $205.96 and trading a further $11 higher intraday. Goldman Sachs came in second with a $265 per share price target.

For the bears –

On Feb. 14, 176 million shares of Google stock, which have been locked up under the company's complex stock-release program, are scheduled to hit the market. As economists never tire of pointing out, more supply without more demand means that the price will drop.
Google's average daily volume is 10.8 million shares. If just 20 percent of the 176 million shares are in fact sold, that will equate to roughly three times the normal trading volume.
"Major lockups always create turbulence in shares," says Mark Mahaney, an analyst with American Technology Research. "Usually we see a trade-off going into lockups."

But another date in February could feed the bulls:-

On Feb. 9, Google will hold its first analysts day, which should give a clearer picture of what the company is up to and what its plans are.
"As long as Google management doesn't come out looking like Martians on analysts day, there will be a strong bid to the shares," Mahaney says. If you still want in on Google, tune in to that meeting.

So, chartwise, despite the huge volatility, the upwards bias goes on for GOOG imho, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows and a speculative +$30 target north from a channel breakout which could mean $240…

When we see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, we’ll know that the GOOG bubble is deflating and that mega-gap at $150/$160 will beckon……

nytetrader · Feb 9, 2005

Which one of these 2 companies is Google in the process of buying? Checkpoint Systems - CKP or Check Point Software - CHKP?

Check Point Software ( www.checkpoint.com ) seems to be the obvious choice, but it seems that reports are to the contrary. Why would Google buy a company like Checkpoint Systems ( www.checkpointsystems.com ) ?

Somebody help me.

bgold · Feb 9, 2005

tradesmart said:
Volatile times for GOOG shareholders with a tantalising surge north out of the established $30 channel to meet the $215 target mentioned above; only to collapse $20 south to fill the huge gap left by the bull’s exuberance….

There are currently a lot of psychological pressures on this stock:-

For the bulls –

For the bears –

But another date in February could feed the bulls:-

So, chartwise, despite the huge volatility, the upwards bias goes on for GOOG imho, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows and a speculative +$30 target north from a channel breakout which could mean $240…

When we see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, we’ll know that the GOOG bubble is deflating and that mega-gap at $150/$160 will beckon……

TS, as always, a insightful analysis. Please do keep sharing your analyses. GOOG has been a great trading stock and promises to provide ample more opportunities.
I share your upside bias. How about $255, which represents the 300% of IPO price, for a target?

tradesmart · Feb 14, 2005

How about $255, which represents the 300% of IPO price, for a target?

Maybe in time Bgold, but since it hit the highs north of $215, GOOG been observing a well defined downtrend channel, but it could be interpreted as a big bull flag, and with an apparent R/S switch on RSI/CCI, I’m tempted to call an imminent break to the upside.

However, today (as mentioned above) 176 million shares of Google stock, which have been locked up under the company's complex stock-release program, are scheduled to hit the market, so in the face of such a potential deluge, any speculation based on chart patterns could be exceedingly premature…..

But more tradable volatility from GOOG and multi-$$$’s intraday moves in the offing I’m sure……..

Which one of these 2 companies is Google in the process of buying? Checkpoint Systems - CKP or Check Point Software - CHKP?

Nytetrader – I haven’t heard anything about this….

ps - and so the GOOG bull goes on.......
CIBC ups Google on diminished concern over MSN threat - CIBC World Markets overnight raised its rating on Google, Inc. (GOOG) to "sector outperform" from "sector perform," saying it's now less concerned with the competitive threat posed by MSN. The broker told clients it sees potential upside to $245 in the shares.

tradesmart · Feb 14, 2005

Just a follow up observation relative to the above post – I think that things are now looking more positive for an upside break, with PD showing on RSI/CCI and the immediate target implied by the channel break is c.$200 imho…..

No sign of a big sell off yet from the ‘unlocked’ stock holders…..

But with a stock that so many brokers are hanging targets of $200+++ on, what would you do…..?

Sell at $188, which could be a 'low', or wait for a while…..

(think about it……..

)

nytetrader · Feb 15, 2005

tradesmart said:
Nytetrader – I haven’t heard anything about this….

I appreciate the response.

Naz · Feb 15, 2005

bgold said:
GOOG has been a great trading stock and promises to provide ample more opportunities.

I agree,today yet again it's been a gem.
I bought my first lot at $192.48 today pre market on island, when it made the premarket double bottom.Its just testing the $200 level as i write.Thats a $7 run in 2 hours.

Naz

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