Price, (Volume), Support, Resistance, Demand, Supply . . .

stevespray said:
No one wants to risk damaging their 'appearence' by making a duff call. .

Incidentally, the point of this sort of analysis is not to make calls. In fact, making calls is probably the most counter-productive goal. The point is to locate potential areas of S/R, interpret price action, and apply the appropriate strategies and tactics. Price either breaks out or it doesn't. It either reverses or it doesn't. What the trader thinks about it is irrelevant.
 
JumpOff said:
This is the first I've heard of the rectangles document.

If you have a moment, will you post a link to it's location, or upload it here?

.

It's in Files, along with all the other pdfs.

Edit: This pdf is now sent automatically to anyone who registers.
 
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dbphoenix said:
I thought it had run its course because no one was posting to it, until Porks' question. If you can persuade people to post examples of application, that will be of benefit to everyone.

Here's what I've been doing today. I'm paper trading the Forex EUR/USD pair. It it approaching resistance at 4 year high (see the weekly chart and daily charts..)

After a lot of stupid trades that I wish I hadn't made (and might I add - I wish I'd had tighter stops on them too...) I finally decided to wait to see what would happen. See the half hour chart to watch a rounded top develop..

Sure enough, we got a lower low and then a lower high. - Now we have a reason to trade. (See the 5 minute chart) I drew my trendlines, entered the trade and looked back out at the 4 hour chart to see when the retracement might hit support. Then after the position made break even I trailed a loose stop (loose for me thats about 15 pips) and waited. I made 43 pips and I'm waiting to get back in on a buy. We still haven't hit the zone I outlined in pink on the 5 minute chart....
 

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Here's the 5 minute and the 4 hour.

JO
 

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OK - The price hit the zone I marked in earlier in pink and I entered long with a really tight stop. The price immediately sagged below the trend line I had marked by several pips and I was stopped out. Although widening my stop would have helped in this case, I'm please that I stuck with my plan and I'll just wait for the next opportunity. I wasn't in any mood to give back a bunch of those pips I earned earlier, waiting to see if the trade would go my way.... I had already picked what I thought was the best possible entry point, - so if the price moves to my stop, I'm better off on the sidelines wondering what I can do better next time.

The green line shows that supporting trend line from the 4 hour chart. That's all for me today. Off to coach my kids soccer team.....
JO
 

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People keep asking me about my strategy and I keep replying that it's all in what I've already written, most of which is on message boards and free. But since today provides an excellent example of a retracement strategy, I'll answer the question yet one more time.

NQ makes a new swing high at 10:30/:35 EST. Price retraces. Go long the retracement. Tighten the stop when price reaches the target, in this case 1465.

Is that hard? No. Is it worth waiting for? Yes. Is patience a difficult habit to acquire? Yes.
 
Is this the chart? I think the timestamps are central time... JO
 

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Incidentally, I exited at 75, which was ten points past the target. A little bonus.
 
JonnyT said:
And missed a further 7 points ;)

Don't care. :) I wrestled the greed demon to the ground long ago. The probability of a substantial continuation after a range expansion of this extent was nil. Not worth sitting around for hours for a few points.

Most traders, on the other hand, would be struggling to catch the continuation or to catch a reversal, and give back a substantial portion of their profits. I've seen that movie. I have no interest in seeing it again. I'm happy with my 26 points.
 
dbphoenix said:
If you want to discuss stocks or futures or whatever and post charts and comment on S/R and/or price movement or whatever and/or ask for comments on same, that's fine. But I can't force people to respond. So far, there's been little comment on erie's charts, and there's been no further comment on DELL. If nobody's interested, then nobody's interested..

I guess nobody's interested. No problem, will just go back to my Wrandumb Thots. Lots of views , maybe not many actually trade with S/R.
take care, I'm usually lurking around

erie
 
It's not that I'm not interested, just that I couldn't figure out what you were talking about. I don't trade that instrument, and I didn't see any time frame labels, and couldn't tell where the "19th" or the "20th" was. I thought maybe I was just to ignorant to comment... JO
 
hello:
I was looking back at my earlier post #384, and thought perhaps I could offer a further comment that might be of interest.

In that post, I mentioned my opinion that when traders feel a sense of urgency, they will enter market orders that execute at the offer, and conversely if there is a sense of urgency to exit, that will be reflected in trades executing at the bid price. I guess what I would suggest in addition is that one might be able to differentiate between so-called smart money (or program trades) and retail traders. I think one might make an argument that professionals are less likely to be caught on the wrong side of the market. The daily experience of seeing price wiggle around makes it less likely that they will be "shaken out" of a position on a on a transient spike up or down. Retail traders on the other hand seem to exhibit several predictable characteristics as follows: 1. They don't use stops, or 2. If they use stops, they are not set wide enough, and 3. They may look at a chart, see a quick spike in the wrong direction, and find that they no longer have the courage of their convictions (lack of experience). The result is they enter a market order to bail out. On an individual basis, this is behavior that usually results in loss and possible blow-out of the account. On a larger scale, I would suggest that (depending on the market and time frame) it may account for the start or end of a trend process. Just a few thoughts. Southpaw46
 
About posting charts.

The standard complaint is that threads like this are all theory and no practice. All thought and no action. Let's post "real" charts (like a chart that's a day old is any different from a chart that's a week old, or a month old) and talk about them. So somebody posts a chart and nobody says anything, including the individual who pressed for posting the charts in the first place. This naturally discourages the person who posted the chart and he stops posting them, and nobody else picks up the slack. And you're back where you started.

What inexperienced traders miss is that we trade not the markets but our perceptions of the markets. When A looks at a chart, he sees something different than B does because he's looking for different things. And if B has no idea what A is looking for or why he's looking for it, there's not much to say unless he interprets it in his own way, which is generally of interest only to someone who hasn't a clue and is looking to borrow somebody else's strategy and tactics.

Therefore, if one wants to post a chart to illustrate some point, then that's a public service and always welcomed. However, if one is seeking comment on the chart, then he must explain what it is he's trying to do and why he's trying to do it. Otherwise, whoever looks at the chart is forced to interpret it based on what he himself is looking for, which may have no pertinence to what the poster is looking for.

Therefore, anyone looking for anything substantive should explain his strategy and tactics so that others can say something intelligent. Otherwise, whatever comments are made are likely to be along the lines of "nice chart". If one doesn't want to do that, I see no reason to post a chart other than to illustrate a point, as mentioned above. In that case, no comment is expected, and no one's feelings are hurt if none is forthcoming.
 
Southpaw46 said:
I think one might make an argument that professionals are less likely to be caught on the wrong side of the market. The daily experience of seeing price wiggle around makes it less likely that they will be "shaken out" of a position on a on a transient spike up or down. Retail traders on the other hand seem to exhibit several predictable characteristics as follows: 1. They don't use stops, or 2. If they use stops, they are not set wide enough, and 3. They may look at a chart, see a quick spike in the wrong direction, and find that they no longer have the courage of their convictions (lack of experience). The result is they enter a market order to bail out.

I suggest that wider stops are not necessarily the answer, that re-examining one's entry tactics may be more pertinent. Wide stops can blow out an account just as surely as no stops at all if no consideration is given to the probability that the entry will be successful.

As for convictions, I don't see courage as an issue so much as whether one ought to have convictions or not. Since the outcome of any given trade is unknowable, there's really nothing to have any conviction about other than to follow the trading plan. Having convictions can in fact be one of the most damaging characteristics than one can adopt if they persuade him to trade what he thinks rather than what he sees.
 
dbphoenix said:
Incidentally, I exited at 75, which was ten points past the target. A little bonus.

My understanding is that you went long @1449 with a target of 1465 which is +16.
What level did you set your stoploss at and how did you decide upon it. ?

Regards

bracke
 
dbphoenix said:
Once I reached the target, I set a trailing stop.

So no stop set on opening the trade.

Were you sat watching the price from the moment you opened the trade and until you closed it. ?If it had gone against you how many points would you have been prepared to lose before you closed the trade ?

Regards

bracke
 
Yes, I place a stop when I enter the trade. However, it's up to you to decide whether or not to place a stop, where to place it, how wide it should be, whether it should trail or not, how soon you move it to breakeven and so on according to your risk tolerance and the research you've done. Ditto for the number of points I'm prepared to lose. Doesn't matter. All that matters is what you're willing to lose and whether or not you've done the work to increase the probability that you won't lose anything at all.
 
dbphoenix said:
Yes, I place a stop when I enter the trade. However, it's up to you to decide whether or not to place a stop, where to place it, how wide it should be, whether it should trail or not, how soon you move it to breakeven and so on according to your risk tolerance and the research you've done. Ditto for the number of points I'm prepared to lose. Doesn't matter. All that matters is what you're willing to lose and whether or not you've done the work to increase the probability that you won't lose anything at all.

Thank you for your reply.

Ball returned to my court with a cross court forehand and a fair degree of (non-political )spin,
which I am unable to return. Your game.

Regards

bracke
 
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