FTSE 100 August 2004

barjon said:

golf's off - we're all wimps

By another route, if you regard yesterday's break of resistance as completing a double bottom it gives a minimum target of 4583. Could all turn out to be a false break tho' - as usual it'll either go up or down (or maybe even sideways)

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Pretty solid bottom too - there're three of them if you go back to the end of March

barjon said:

peter

Can't shake you out of your bear mode then!!! Yes, the volumes been pretty lowish of late but it did perk up at the support level. What do they say about a rise on low volume - it's supposed to be bearish isn't it?

jon

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Nope. Still can't find much non-establishment commentary that favours the bulls. The mainstream press trot out what the big brokerages and government statisticians feed them. That together with government vested interests and elections looming here as well as in the US explain a lot ("It's the economy stupid!" - remember that one?). But the clouds are gathering - especially in the US - and if/when the US economy catches a cold - we all know what happens next.

So Yes - that's my 'stand-back and get some perspective' medium term view and has been for quite a while. Doesn't rule out major moves up though. As usual its all a question of timing.

BTW - tried to post a chart with that last post but it didn't appear - wmf file. Any suggestions why not anyone?

peter

probably not a valid extension - has to be one of the following I think

doc gif htm html jpe jpeg jpg mp3 pdf png psd txt xls zip.

Another thing about the rally

Both the Dow and the SPX have yet to test their 200 dma's or the tops of their respective declining channels. If they turn South at either, I doubt we'll see a UK/US divergence. Unlike the ftse, the corresponding bottoms of both those indices are declining. Both index channels from the March highs remain intact. My best guess is probably a bit more upside there - say to SPX 1120 and Dow 10400 ish before a major downturn.

Anyway I'm still enjoying the luxury of sitting back and watching with no open positions ( on the indices anyway) to get precious about.

..........and granny says, trade what you see not what you think

so far as ftse is concerned (led by US or not) it'll be breaking through that solid support you highlighted that might result in a major move down. The first clue to that happening might be a failure to push up through the resistance line which would leave the possibility that the descending triangle is still forming - my post 212 page 15. See, I can be bearish too

Morning all!

FWIW (not a lot I know ) .....I am still bearish, tho getting more like a bear with a sore head

Dental appoint beckons later, so no doubt will have mouth to match above head!

barjon said:

peter
probably not a valid extension - has to be one of the following I think
doc gif htm html jpe jpeg jpg mp3 pdf png psd txt xls zip.

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Blimey. I seem to have caught post-itis this am.

Jon

I see you use Sharescope - mine only has a .wmf export option for graphs, so how do you produce yours?

For what its worth fellas.

Fib grid 4535/4283.The retracement is 0.786 = 4481and we got very near to 4480 today.That coupled with 5 or 6 up days in a row,it could be ready for a fall.lol

Also just noticed Barjons downtrend line from mid Apri @ about 4600 ish has come near to 4470.

As Barjon say’s, FTSE longs are definitely favoured by the current daily chart setup, and the clear ‘W’ bottom target indicates a test of 4600 could be in the sights again…….the shorter term charts show a kind of island reversal to add to the bullish tone…….

Anyway, RSI will unfailingly show us where the top is - It’s a long until divergence sets in imho, and at the moment it’s pointing north without hesitation….(not to say there won’t be shortable pullbacks on the way up…will we hit another expensive oilslick…….?!)

And also now it’s touching the former uptrend channel lower support line from the underside which could create resistance…..

Tradesmart

Great chart, what charting package do you use?

Have tried to replicate your results on Sharescope but not as clear.

Also - what settings do you use.

Thanks in advance.

pepe

Pepe – I use SierraCharts with a MyTrack data feed.

RSI settings are as on the chart (15,3,70,30,1) 100ema is shown and you can select the chart style/color in the comprehensive SC chart settings.

Regards

If anyone takes TASC magazine there is an interesting article in the Aug issue concerning "Advancing Issues Momentum" (AIM). This is the Advance Issues Momentum indicator, and the premiss is that you choose the stocks that are of interest, so that you don't get all the extraneous noise that the broad market advancing issues provide - you are just measuring those that are of interest.

In this case I have used the largest 20 stocks in the ftse by Mkt cap. To avoid noisy data, the advances are smoothed over a period of 20 days so that a definition of an advance is where price rises above the level of 20 days ago - this is the default period in the system - it may be worthwhile experimenting with other periods. Whilst there is no reason why all 100 stocks could not be included in the indicator, the processing is so slow that my pc becomes unusable if all 100 are used - even 20 stocks seems to slow it down tremendously - probably a feature of the language used in writing the indicator within AIQ.

Looking at the last 12 months, it has been a pretty good indicator when it moves away from extremes i.e. down from above 15 or up from below 5. But not perfect by any means - some of the sell signals last year only showed a consolidation in the advance - but it would seem to indicate that any upside from here could be hard earned.

interesting charts roger and tradesmart

roger - could you use sectors (banks, beverages, chemicals etc) instead of individual stocks?

peter - I just use edit (copy chart to clipboard), then paste it in paint and save as gif

barjon - you're ahead of me! That was a suggestion in the article, so that you would get an AIM indicator for each group. It could well be worth doing for the principle sectors in the FTSE i.e. Financials, Pharmaceuticals and Oil.

Fellow Threaders

I will not be posting for most of this week as I have to go North on business, yes into the wilds beyond the Watford Gap. Will return towards end of week.

Regards

bracke

Hi

Has anyone used this system since this post, and if so, what have your experiences been?

Regards

Jeff

FetteredChinos said:

bracke. DC's system is the Genesis system.

he has basically taken a few systems and cobbled them together to produce a daddy of a system.. it can either be traded on overnight futures (as i am doing until i get used to it fully) or day-traded.

in backtesting it seems to make about 100points a week on the DOW, with proportional success on the FTSE.

the hit rate of 80+% should give it away that it is a counter-trend system..

it is the use of patterns combined with this that seems to make it a killer..

FC

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Hi to in this Thread!

How about taking a look at my thread 'Has the FTSE reached its Top yet?' - use of Fundamentals and TA suggested that 5,650 is the projected Top. Well, not beyond that though.

The high in a candle-stick chart for today of course would be 5,640++ but the close being 5,620++ - it suggests a slow retracement but that would dwindle over time. In terms of FA, the retrace is due to Labour trying to give some tax-earning opportunity away and trying to cover that hole using another LOBANG ( tax ) and that in the short term provide a short lift for banking sector.

Oil and some other commodities should retrace - do look out for it as you can go long. In my opinion, if you are into Forex as well - dump GBP as it will lose value to the USD in the long term! Please tread carefully as Forex and Commodities Futures Contract can ruin a trader!

S K

Ferru said:

Hi

Has anyone used this system since this post, and if so, what have your experiences been?

Regards

Jeff

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