I have a serious problem please guide

S

sun11

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Suppose I design a system, System A. Now after all research & back test , demo test.
I started trading real with system A.

Day 1 : System produce more than expected profit , Me: Happy.
Day 2 : Not so good day, break even, Me: Suspicious.
Day 3 : Really a bad day, more than expected loss, Me: Panic.

At "Panic" stage, I stopped trading & start re engineering the system.
Cause I think something is wrong with my system.

This way the loop continues.....

I think this is the only reason why success is still far away from me.
I'm tired of these, I want to get out of this loop. Please help. I don't have much money to invest on top rated mentors. So here I have to depend on free help & free resources.

If you have any advise please share.

Thank you...
 
sun11 said:
Day 1 : System produce more than expected profit , Me: Happy.
Day 2 : Not so good day, break even, Me: Suspicious.
Day 3 : Really a bad day, more than expected loss, Me: Panic.
Click to expand...
Hi sun11,
I've highlighted the areas where, in my opinion, you're going wrong. Results from just one day prove nothing and tell you nothing at all about the long term efficacy of your methodology. Trade it for a full month if you're day trading or for six months if you're swing trading and then your 'happy', 'suspicious' and 'panic' responses may have value.
Tim.
 
sun11 said:
Suppose I design a system, System A. Now after all research & back test , demo test.
I started trading real with system A.

Day 1 : System produce more than expected profit , Me: Happy.
Day 2 : Not so good day, break even, Me: Suspicious.
Day 3 : Really a bad day, more than expected loss, Me: Panic.

At "Panic" stage, I stopped trading & start re engineering the system.
Cause I think something is wrong with my system.

This way the loop continues.....

I think this is the only reason why success is still far away from me.
I'm tired of these, I want to get out of this loop. Please help. I don't have much money to invest on top rated mentors. So here I have to depend on free help & free resources.

If you have any advise please share.

Thank you...
Click to expand...

3 days to test a system ?...........methinks you need to take a statistics course to understand the need for extensive sample testing .....put it through perhaps 100 minimum trades ....1000 better ...10,000 even better

I was scalping 2-300 times a day to perfect what I do ....so within a few weeks I had thousands of trades to learn and enhance my scalping approach .............forexperian has traded many many thousand trades as well .......
 
Hi Sun 11

Yes the theory is keep it simple and find a good method stick with your rules and adopt good money management etc - and all is fine.

If it was like this then maybe over 80 -90% of all traders would not fail even after devoting years and years trying to "crack the code" and finding a magic formula.

The good news is that a few methods out of thousands can and do work and then like any skill - the more you practice and participate and work at it - the more likely you will see favourable results

If you are after day trading - forget any time frame over 5 mins .

If you are after a method that keeps you relaxed and uses large stops and is not very profitable - then try weekly and monthly charts.

Trouble is - its not easy or simple - you need to spend hour and hours - finding a way that suits you and your own timetable - whether part or full time.

Yes - books and dvd''s etc will help - but the real trick is like NVP has mentioned - thousands of hours studying live charts and finding things that work ideally more that 60 -70% of the time - day in day out.

You need to understand price action - price structure - loads of different methods and how your particular market works. That's maybe 6 to 12 months for a start. Then its making sure you are able to stand the pressures and control your own emotions - ideally on a small live real account.

I reckon you will know under 2 yrs if it is for you - but don't be surprised if you need 3 to 5 years to be consistent and making really good progress etc etc

Its all possible but as 8 or 9 out of 10 traders find out - its not easy or simple

GL and if i can help more on FX intraday trading - no problem - no charge - no commitment - but expect 4 -6 + months of slogging away to see the light etc


Regards


F
 
To stop losing, stop trading with real money. Trade with a demo account until you have a system that works on paper (working in real life depends on your execution but first things first). If you trade all over the place the only thing you'll learn is that you need discipline.

Define precise entry, stop loss, and exits.


Order the book mentioned above. While waiting for the book, watch Mark Douglas videos on youtube.

Build a complete, formal business plan, including a list of trading beliefs you have. Build your setups around your hypothetical beliefs. Test them with exact trades at least 24 times without changing a thing. You've heard you can be functional in 24 hours but it takes 10,000 hours to master something. You can have functional knowledge of your system in 24 trades but it takes 10,000 trades to master it.

While testing a sample, do not change a thing. Make note of ideas that come to you, but save the tweaks for another sample. Individual trades are random. They tell you little. The series of trades tell you something, and obviously a sample size of 24 doesn't tell you much...but 24 times more than a single trade.

Begin to think in terms of probability, not just in trading but in everything. When you look for your shoes don't stumble around trying to find where you left them. Think, under the bed probably, behind the couch maybe, on top of the house probably not!
 
Thank you all for replying me. Its really showing me some lights. I'm into this loop since many years, 5-6 years probably. I started trading since 2009 when I just passed out from high school. During these years, I had many flaws. But as the year goes on, I improved. I must say, back then I was after some sort of holy grail. That's why tried almost over 1000+ strategies. Read over many books. I was more focus on trading rather than my graduation, sometimes duelling in between. People around me discouraging. But I never stopped trying. Hours and hours, day after day trying to improve my strategy & myself.
Now all of my problems are solved almost. Expect this last one which is "Keeping faith on a system".


NVP said:
3 days to test a system ?...........methinks you need to take a statistics course to understand the need for extensive sample testing .....put it through perhaps 100 minimum trades ....1000 better ...10,000 even better
Click to expand...

Actually before using the strategy on live, I do backward test using an EA or Excel templates made with the strategy. If the backtest results shows 45% win rate over a decade. Then while doing live test, at 3rd day if I loose I feel like, then probably its not going to work. As wining rate was only 45%.

I will try to improve my psychology here.

Forexmospherian said:
GL and if i can help more on FX intraday trading - no problem - no charge - no commitment - but expect 4 -6 + months of slogging away to see the light etc

Regards

F
Click to expand...

Thank you F, my trading approaches are intra-day. Time frame is 1 minute to hourly. I would love to receive your help.

Regards
 
sun11 said:
Thank you all for replying me. Its really showing me some lights. I'm into this loop since many years, 5-6 years probably. I started trading since 2009 when I just passed out from high school. During these years, I had many flaws. But as the year goes on, I improved. I must say, back then I was after some sort of holy grail. That's why tried almost over 1000+ strategies................


Thank you F, my trading approaches are intra-day. Time frame is 1 minute to hourly. I would love to receive your help.

Regards
Click to expand...


Hi Sun

If you are intraday FX and have been trading off and on since 2009 etc - then I am sure I can take you on to the next stage and get you with a system that suits you and will consistently make money - ie not promising every day yet - but every week and every month etc.

Questions to ask first

1. How many hours a day have you got to trade and what is your own time window - ie which is your main session you presently trade ?

2. Do you reckon over this last 5 years you have watched either a 1 / 3 or 5 minute chart live for over say 2000+ hrs . ie say you had 3 hrs a day - 15 hrs a week and you watched and traded on a 3 min chart over 2 hrs a day 4 days a week - then 8 hours a week and it would take you approximately just over 5 yrs to have 2k hrs under your belt. If you had been doing say 15 hrs a week working on live charts ( nor back testing or reading books etc ) then maybe only 3 yrs needed ??

3. When I helped Major Magnum last year to get into short term intraday he used to put in over 40+ hrs a week trading on a 1 min chart - along with still carrying out his own job - by cramming in a few hrs every morning early and then 3 -6 hrs a night after he had finished work and his family had gone to bed. He managed to get in 1k hrs in under 6 months and that really helped him - especially with me telling him what to be looking for etc. Although you need over 5k and even the infamous 10k hrs to be really good and highly skilled without the first 1 -2k hrs you just will not be understand price action and price structure and timings of moves.

4. How many trades a session/ day have you been doing before in your past trading journey - ie less than 5 a day - 10+ or over 20+ ??

5. Whats your best win ratio on over 100 trades on a demo ?? and what size stops are to comfortable with ?

6. What existing technical analysis method do you presently like - ie Elliots Wave - Harmonics Patterns - Gann - Fibs - other etc ?

Once I have a bit of a trading background on you - I can start coming up with a plan for you - that should see you having a dramatic change over next 3 months

Look forward to your reply

Regards


F
 
Perhpas you could do a plan for me?

Forexmospherian said:
1. How many hours a day have you got to trade and what is your own time window - ie which is your main session you presently trade ?
Click to expand...
Typically I get ta the office about 10. Coffee. Chat. Have a laugh. Check out what we're trying to match. Lunch. 3pm back at the desk. Call investors. Call issuers. 5pm down at the bar.

Forexmospherian said:
2. Do you reckon over this last 5 years you have watched either a 1 / 3 or 5 minute chart live for over say 2000+ hrs . ie say you had 3 hrs a day - 15 hrs a week and you watched and traded on a 3 min chart over 2 hrs a day 4 days a week - then 8 hours a week and it would take you approximately just over 5 yrs to have 2k hrs under your belt. If you had been doing say 15 hrs a week working on live charts ( nor back testing or reading books etc ) then maybe only 3 yrs needed ??
Click to expand...
No. Never look at charts. I have a phone. I have contacts. I have a back office support team. Do I need charts too?

Forexmospherian said:
3. When I helped Major Magnum last year to get into short term intraday he used to put in over 40+ hrs a week trading on a 1 min chart - along with still carrying out his own job - by cramming in a few hrs every morning early and then 3 -6 hrs a night after he had finished work and his family had gone to bed. He managed to get in 1k hrs in under 6 months and that really helped him - especially with me telling him what to be looking for etc. Although you need over 5k and even the infamous 10k hrs to be really good and highly skilled without the first 1 -2k hrs you just will not be understand price action and price structure and timings of moves.
Click to expand...
I don't get away from clients until around 3am and then I guess if I pop some speed and do some more coke I could get maybe 30 mins before I crash. Could we fit something into that?

Forexmospherian said:
4. How many trades a session/ day have you been doing before in your past trading journey - ie less than 5 a day - 10+ or over 20+ ??
Click to expand...
I aim for a decent trade each month, but some of the dog & pony shows last longer so providing I can clear a decent franchise or fee every 6-8 weeks I'm happy, partners are happy, bonus is happy.

Forexmospherian said:
5. Whats your best win ratio on over 100 trades on a demo ?? and what size stops are to comfortable with ?
Click to expand...
Never traded demo and the nature of my trades require a 100% win rate - I don't buy unless I can sell. Stops not needed. See previous sentence.

Forexmospherian said:
6. What existing technical analysis method do you presently like - ie Elliots Wave - Harmonics Patterns - Gann - Fibs - other etc ?
Click to expand...
Checking out if she's with a friend or colleague. If she flicks her hair or looks more than once in my direction.

Forexmospherian said:
Once I have a bit of a trading background on you - I can start coming up with a plan for you - that should see you having a dramatic change over next 3 months
Click to expand...
Yes, that's what I'm looking for. I want to swap my currently pleasant and obscenely wanton wealthy existence for that of an impoverished nervous wreck staring at a screen 16 hours a day to make a few pennies. Can you help?
 
Pat Riley said:
Perhpas you could do a plan for me?

Typically I get ta the office about 10. Coffee. Chat. Have a laugh. Check out what we're trying to match. Lunch. 3pm back at the desk. Call investors. Call issuers. 5pm down at the bar.

No. Never look at charts. I have a phone. I have contacts. I have a back office support team. Do I need charts too?

I don't get away from clients until around 3am and then I guess if I pop some speed and do some more coke I could get maybe 30 mins before I crash. Could we fit something into that?

I aim for a decent trade each month, but some of the dog & pony shows last longer so providing I can clear a decent franchise or fee every 6-8 weeks I'm happy, partners are happy, bonus is happy.

Never traded demo and the nature of my trades require a 100% win rate - I don't buy unless I can sell. Stops not needed. See previous sentence.

Checking out if she's with a friend or colleague. If she flicks her hair or looks more than once in my direction.

Yes, that's what I'm looking for. I want to swap my currently pleasant and obscenely wanton wealthy existence for that of an impoverished nervous wreck staring at a screen 16 hours a day to make a few pennies. Can you help?
Click to expand...

LOL Pat

I had a job like that 25 yrs ago :LOL:

It gave me the freedom to do what i do now - trouble is - I like pressure and work - its gives me a "buzz" and with regards to 16 hrs a day - yesterday I think I traded less than 4 hrs all day and made a decent amount of money - but nothing like what Wayne Rooney or any decent top footie player earns - but then that's a different story

Regards


F

PS - If I was your Boss - I would sack you - but I am sure you would say you were good at something ;-)
 
There is not a way or system that will master the market, when any systematic system is applied rigidly it also delivers during certain periods consecutive negative outcomes, those periods have great probability to shake you out and push you back into the loop. It is very difficult to stay with your system in those periods and your negative emotion will not help.

Yes a proper mind set and Douglas will help but not always especially when market is constantly slapping in your face.

Market does not have to do anything, does what it has to do and a systematic rigid approach only brings pain, the numerous variations the market can bring are multiple and changing you rigidness will bring just more pain.

Best in my view is to use your knowledge to create a style of trade where you are not expecting anything from the market but you will only go along with it, here time screen is a must, of course you need some rule to protect your capital and your mind but I will abandon all the rules that makes me shortsighted in front of what the market is offering at that specific time.
 
Fugazsy said:
There is not a way or system that will master the market, when any systematic system is applied rigidly it also delivers during certain periods consecutive negative outcomes, those periods have great probability to shake you out and push you back into the loop. It is very difficult to stay with your system in those periods and your negative emotion will not help.

Yes a proper mind set and Douglas will help but not always especially when market is constantly slapping in your face.

Market does not have to do anything, does what it has to do and a systematic rigid approach only brings pain, the numerous variations the market can bring are multiple and changing you rigidness will bring just more pain.

Best in my view is to use your knowledge to create a style of trade where you are not expecting anything from the market but you will only go along with it, here time screen is a must, of course you need some rule to protect your capital and your mind but I will abandon all the rules that makes me shortsighted in front of what the market is offering at that specific time.
Click to expand...

Thank you Fugazsy...I got your point. You are right about systematic rigidity. I currently developing my mind set & system in such way you mentioned.
 
Hi Forexmospherian,
Thank you for the post. I Pm you the answers.

Best Regards
S
 
Forexmospherian said:
LOL Pat

I had a job like that 25 yrs ago :LOL:

It gave me the freedom to do what i do now - trouble is - I like pressure and work - its gives me a "buzz" and with regards to 16 hrs a day - yesterday I think I traded less than 4 hrs all day and made a decent amount of money - but nothing like what Wayne Rooney or any decent top footie player earns - but then that's a different story

Regards


F

PS - If I was your Boss - I would sack you - but I am sure you would say you were good at something ;-)
Click to expand...
Glad ya haven't lost your sense of humour.

For clarity, before the sensitive ones get upset. Me post above was just some light hearted banter aimed at providing some much needed balance to what some, not I, would perhaps consider ta be pompous and arrogant delusions. While we’re all big enough and clued up enough ta appreciate you for what you are and what you bring to the site, an essentially harmless and occasionally accidentally funny old fella, Sun11 is clearly new ta the game, in almost all respects it would seem, and deserves a little protection. Don’t lead him on with promises you can’t possibly hope to deliver on even though possibly in your own head you’re positively intentioned ta do so. Play the game.

PS. If you were my boss I’d wonder what had happened with me life and book a room at the Sherry Netherland.
 
Pat Riley said:
. . . I don't get away from clients until around 3am and then I guess if I pop some speed and do some more coke I could get maybe 30 mins before I crash. Could we fit something into that?. . .
Click to expand...
Is Lord Sewel one of your clients by any chance Pat?
:LOL:
 
sun11 said:
Thank you Fugazsy...I got your point. You are right about systematic rigidity. I currently developing my mind set & system in such way you mentioned.
Click to expand...

Not prob, any time.

Also not having any trades is a position itself, be selective......I consider not taking any trade after monitoring the charts for many hours a sign of maturity for a trader if they do not present themselves.
 
sun11 said:
Hi Forexmospherian,
Thank you for the post. I Pm you the answers.

Best Regards
S
Click to expand...

Hi Sun

Don't accept pm's - as i would get loads of questions and maybe even hate mail etc ;-) and so prefer to keep any training or guidance open on the forums etc

No problem though if not willing to share your journey so far - but if you want some more guidance over this thread or on any journal you open - I am willing to assist etc - no commitments - no cost etc - just your own time invested on charts and study etc

Regards

F
 
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