Trading systems currently working

Hi,

I'm interested in hearing from anyone using a commercial system that is still working (in the current conditions) and has also worked in the bull market we were recently in.

Could you recommend anything worthwhile for a novice who doesn't want to go through the learning curve of system development and is happy to pay for a system so long as it works?

Cheers,
PB.

Currently picking the remains of my system up, and being extremely grateful that I was still paper-trading this week, so nothing working here. The market is showing extreme trends right now, and frankly I think there just isn't enough previous examples of markets like this for a statistical approach to work correctly. I would avoid the markets completely until indices stop moving over 1% a day (good grief, I remember when 0.5% was a lot, and the FTSE was 8% up earlier today).

Once things are calmer, Collective2 has a good range of auto-traders, and is well worth a look. Their Forex price source isn't what you'd call in any way useful for intraday trading, but apart from that their own analysis of systems is fairly damned good.

Suppose I know of a system like the one you are looking for and I post its name here. Next, 50,000 traders will buy it and it will stop working immediately.

This is to say that no commercial system can provide you with an edge. You need to put a lot of hard work to develop your own edge and if you do that will be rewarded.

I'm not trying to discourage you. I am speaking from own experience and I think others will tell you the same.

Hint: if you do not know programming it will be hard to develop a system yourself. You can either partner with a programmer you know preferably a friend or get one of these programs that discover trading systems based on your own performance criteria. Then first paper trade and try to understand the systems and improve them. This is a shortcut that has worked well for me since I'm not a programming expert.

Good luck

Ron

i read somewhere else the breakout systems are starting to show nice profits again because of all the volatility & turmoil in the markets

I recommend to find code or if you do not know how to build the system, to find a coder to creart your own system for trading
If you think about trading serious and want to deal with it for a long time, this is the best method - to creart your own system


I acted in that way. The following webpage help me a lot, it is very useful :

Oscillators, indicators, trading systems for Metastock, Tradestation, Amibroker, Wealth-Lab and Metatrader - forex, futures, stock,commodities.


I recommend it strongly.

I found very useful information on this webpage:
Oscillators, indicators, trading systems for Metastock, Tradestation, Amibroker, Wealth-Lab and Metatrader - forex, futures, stock,commodities.

there are all information about systems for trading
I read some interesting article about the rules when to enter the position and when to go out and also other articles.

For me it is very useful
I recommend it to the users.

Regards.

I am using autotrader in sierracharts that works wonderfully for me, i read from a previouse post that he's system is not working because there is no record of a such
a volatile and extremes, i assume he have done the mistake many do, they build a system around a marked condition.WHen marked conditions change the system stops working. Try building something that not marked condition affected.

What i am using it not commercial as i build it myself, and have no plans of selling it for reason a person here mentioned here. Imagine xxx amount of people trying at the excate same place, will give you ****ty fills and results will not be the same.

On medium to large moves it gives me most of the move ,and on sideways and small moves it dont do ****, in worst case it takes me in the trade and goes breakeven.

Large move : 75+ tick move
Medium move:40+tick move
Small move : 20-30 tick move


There are alot programs out there that work, but far from the way they marked it as.
They marked that it will double ur account in 1month, but does far from that , gives you profit,but if u use a good trading method u would have made more yourself.
You better watch out, there are alot of oilsnake men around trying to sell you the holigrail for a price

With kind regards
Bashir Naimy

bnaimy said:

What i am using it not commercial as i build it myself, and have no plans of selling it for reason a person here mentioned here. Imagine xxx amount of people trying at the excate same place, will give you ****ty fills and results will not be the same.

Click to expand...

I totally agree with everythin you said above, except the quoted section.

For me, I know I didnt "invent the wheel" and Im sure no matter how smart we traders are that Someone -Somewhere Is trading my exact strategies.

Every order someone places is first come first serve against Millions upon millions of traders worldwide simultaniously. "xxx amount of people trying at the exact same place" -THEY ALREADY ARE, trying at that place now!

I'll never understand why most are close to the chest.
Anyway I'll get off my little soapbox now.

bnaimy said:

What i am using it not commercial as i build it myself, and have no plans of selling it for reason a person here mentioned here. Imagine xxx amount of people trying at the excate same place, will give you ****ty fills and results will not be the same.

Click to expand...

but as a flipside wouldn't the move you get in likely be more powerful as there would be a much larger volume of selling?

foredog said:

but as a flipside wouldn't the move you get in likely be more powerful as there would be a much larger volume of selling?

Click to expand...

Thats like the Seasonal trades,

Buy Indices pre christmas.
Buy unleaded gas pre summer driving.
Natural gas pre winter seasons.
Tax Companies pre Tax season.

Eventually, EVERYONE was trading those exact strategies, but that wasnt good enough.

People had to prove they were smarter and better than the next guy. People started buying it earlier (I want to be in it first and/or out, etc...) Then the big market makers come in and counter trade it and crush the little guys playing the seasonal predictable trades.

Every system and style CAN GET TAKEN OUT because of discretionary traders.

luckyd1976 said:

I totally agree with everythin you said above, except the quoted section.

For me, I know I didnt "invent the wheel" and Im sure no matter how smart we traders are that Someone -Somewhere Is trading my exact strategies.

Every order someone places is first come first serve against Millions upon millions of traders worldwide simultaniously. "xxx amount of people trying at the exact same place" -THEY ALREADY ARE, trying at that place now!

I'll never understand why most are close to the chest.
Anyway I'll get off my little soapbox now.

Click to expand...

Its okey with that there are alot of people trying to buy at that place either way, but i am trading the Emini YM , and there are not millions of pople trading that,period.IF you give 100people the program and everybody buys 2 contracts each, thats 200 contacts, that will eat up 3-4 levels of price on the ym.On bigger futures like the ES that is not a issue, but on the smaller ones thats a HUGE problem.

So i hope you understand why, cause it might not apply to your marked but it sure does apply to the one i am using.

I dont mind sharint it, but i cant demand people to not use it on YM, if i knew i could do that i would have no problems with sharing, but i cant so thats a problem.

So i think it varies on what marked a progrma is used on and how liquide it is, but main problem will always bee that at some point to many with the same program will sooner or later pille up on 1 marked andsystem will slowly stop giving that good results, as fills are getting worse and worse.

Ill get of my little soapbox as well :cheesy:

With kind regard
bashir Naimy

bnaimy said:

So i think it varies on what marked a progrma is used on and how liquide it is,

Click to expand...

Good Point. I'ld rep you but I got to spread the love first.

luckyd1976 said:

Good Point. I'ld rep you but I got to spread the love first.

Click to expand...

Ill add some to you as well, for being such a sport

with kind regards
bashir Naimy

PBrooke said:

Hi,

I'm interested in hearing from anyone using a commercial system that is still working (in the current conditions) and has also worked in the bull market we were recently in.

Could you recommend anything worthwhile for a novice who doesn't want to go through the learning curve of system development and is happy to pay for a system so long as it works?

Cheers,
PB.

Click to expand...

I wish you well with your seach, but I don't have a great deal of hope that you'll find what you are looking for.

The simple truth is, that whatever the market, whatever the instrument (s) Whatever the time frame and Whatever the analysis you choose to employ that makes up the system.....to find an edge that you know is suited to your own tolerances/personality/preferences even if an 'off the shelf' system that was profitable -it may not be for you because you either don't understand the edge it provides or it doesn't suit those personal factors mentioned above.

I'm afraid that there is probably no shortcut to 'going through the learning curve' as you put it, whether that be in your own trading system development or indeed in learning about the potential of an off the shelf option (even if it is profitable.)

My advice to you whatever route you decide is to develop/obtain the highest strike rate (winning trades as a % of total trades) system/edge that you can lay your hands on. The reason for this is simple, and that is that as a newbie any prolonged consecutive losing run of trades and/or an erratic distribution of winnning/losing trades can cause a destabilising loss of confidence in the trading system/edge that may cause you to abandon it and start over whilst in a state of drawdown, or indeed begin to cherry pick the trades, thus interfering with the natural laws of probability upon which all trading edges are based.

In finding an edge, make sure you understand it, it's historical strike rate and therefore it's probability of a consecutive losing run and liklely length of that run, so that the system/edge can pull no surprises on you, causing a loss of confidence. Know what the system/edge is capable of, it's limitations, and likely drawdown, and tailor your risk accordingly to within that you can afford/tolerate without it causing you to interfere with the impunity with which you should act when the trading edge presents itself.

I think that a system that uses common indicators and/or strategies found in a book will always have a crowd following each set up. However, there is no way people will be following someone's exact setups and exits in a custom system. There are billions of combinations in any timeframe, and finding the patterns is what we all try to do. I currently have two systems that have been able to move through the current volitility, and also made money in low vol.(since 2004). Depending on the theory used in development, filters could be used to adjust systems to the environment ie. increase or decrease targets and stops, or shut down point based on extremes. I might consider selling signals, but advertising isnt allowed here.

bnaimy said:

Its okey with that there are alot of people trying to buy at that place either way, but i am trading the Emini YM , and there are not millions of pople trading that,period.IF you give 100people the program and everybody buys 2 contracts each, thats 200 contacts, that will eat up 3-4 levels of price on the ym.On bigger futures like the ES that is not a issue, but on the smaller ones thats a HUGE problem.

So i hope you understand why, cause it might not apply to your marked but it sure does apply to the one i am using.

I dont mind sharint it, but i cant demand people to not use it on YM, if i knew i could do that i would have no problems with sharing, but i cant so thats a problem.

So i think it varies on what marked a progrma is used on and how liquide it is, but main problem will always bee that at some point to many with the same program will sooner or later pille up on 1 marked andsystem will slowly stop giving that good results, as fills are getting worse and worse.

Ill get of my little soapbox as well :cheesy:

With kind regard
bashir Naimy

Click to expand...

Well done if you have a pprofitable system. Can I ask why you trade the YM and not the ES since they move virtually lock step together - have you tried your system on the ES?
IF it was profitable on the ES, why not lease it via Strategy runner, where you specify the contract to be traded (ES), so it doesn't affect your own trading on the YM, and you have a nice little money spinner from lease fees?
Regards.

alexadav said:

Well done if you have a pprofitable system. Can I ask why you trade the YM and not the ES since they move virtually lock step together - have you tried your system on the ES?
IF it was profitable on the ES, why not lease it via Strategy runner, where you specify the contract to be traded (ES), so it doesn't affect your own trading on the YM, and you have a nice little money spinner from lease fees?
Regards.

Click to expand...

I was not aware it was possible to lease it , i will have a look at it and see how that works.Thanks for the hint.

Reason i am sticking to the ym so far, is because i am so far only trading 2 contracts, wheneve i get to a point i do 10 contracts i will over to ES,so i will not have any slippage issues. Ym is chart wise same as ES, the value on the ym is lower that is appealing, 1 tick is 5 usd


Got lucky and found a friend who actualy coded it to me in c++, so it will be moreflexible now Now it will not be a living hell to add changes to it.

With kind regards
bashir naimy

Here's some of the better known Broker assisted firms that will allow you to place your system (blackbox) with them and then lease of sell it out if you like.

Striker Securities - Futures Trade Systems, Commodity trading systems, Forex Trading, Alternative Investment
Strategy Exchange | Trading Strategies | Auto-Execution | Auto Trade | Forex | Futures

Futures Truth Magazine
I would highly recommend you get the systems tracked here as well, if you decide on going the sales route...

Daily Trading Signals

Well subsribe to wintrading daily signal offer. Its really a great system that actually works

You can subcribe to them by email @ [email protected]

PBrooke said:

Hi,

I'm interested in hearing from anyone using a commercial system that is still working (in the current conditions) and has also worked in the bull market we were recently in.

Could you recommend anything worthwhile for a novice who doesn't want to go through the learning curve of system development and is happy to pay for a system so long as it works?

Cheers,
PB.

Click to expand...

I think it is misconception to think that algo strats do not work in this environment. Renaissance are +50% and Winton +20% which is a godo indication that algo's have actually shone through. I have found the trend followers and very short term momentum models have worked best over the course of the year. I had a couple of previously "bullet proof" strats go off the rail a bit but this just highlighted the need to system diversification.
Trends your friends and go with flow are the most imoportant advice from me.

bnaimy said:

What i am using it not commercial as i build it myself, and have no plans of selling it for reason a person here mentioned here. Imagine xxx amount of people trying at the excate same place, will give you ****ty fills and results will not be the same.

Click to expand...

Haha yes exactly.

Always shows: a few get it, 95% don't, which is mirrored in brokerage account net results.

TWI said:

I have found the trend followers and very short term momentum models have worked best over the course of the year.
Trends your friends and go with flow are the most imoportant advice from me.

Click to expand...

Some absolutely spot on advice I totally agree with.