Time to flatten?

DionysusToast

DionysusToast

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I brought some ETFs mid last year - not huge amounts of $$$ - just stuff I thought would be stable. The total position cost was about $66,500 and it's now roughly $82k.

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I am thinking that with the S&P closing in on 1300, it's decision time.

So
a) Is the market is going to keep marching up regardless of the fundamentals?
b) Are the 'fundamentals' better than I think?
c) Is this just a side effect of newly created money finding somewhere to live?
d) Is a correction just around the corner?

I am marvelling at the way this market just keeps climbing relentlessly. I can't pretend to be able to predict where it will go next.

What would you do ?

DT
 

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Definitely think the market is overpriced at the moment. However, there are still plenty of investors looking to go long - I suppose they might be waiting for a little more conviction from an upcoming economic report. So, I think there is a good chance for more upwards movement.

Is there anyway you can close half your positions (you're long 200, so sell 100 of each) and let the other half run...?
 
Id close it, but then I would have said that last week, and the week before that, and the week before that, and been wrong everytime! ; I too, have been amazed by the relentless one-way traffic.
Maybe the fundamentals are a lot better than I realise...?....

Good trading though!
 
Are we talking equities in general or the sectors of the ETFs? Question is worded as though the former but am assuming there's a relevance to the latter?

Either way I don't think I'd want to make a call as it ain't obviously under or over valued...
 
scose-no-doubt said:
On what basis if you don't mind my asking.
Click to expand...

I think the basis is - nothing has improved.

Unemployment still rising, business still closing, houses still being foreclosed.

I'm just a bundle of joy....

Right now - good news, market rises. Bad news, market drops slightly - buyers jump in....

Perhaps we need to see mid 1500's before anyone sneezes.
 
Your guess as good as mine, toastie. Fwiw I've gone to cash in my equity portfolio 'cept for a few banks. By all accounts there's still plenty of money rolling into funds, so they've got to do something with it whether they like it or not. Not sure where you can get the stats from, but keep your eye on that money flow.

cheers

jon
 
arabianights said:
Are we talking equities in general or the sectors of the ETFs? Question is worded as though the former but am assuming there's a relevance to the latter?

Either way I don't think I'd want to make a call as it ain't obviously under or over valued...
Click to expand...

Good point. Obviously agriculture for instance is not like an 'regular' broad index equity ETF. Some of this stuff was chosen because of how they could behave if the dollar crashes.

Still perhaps I should have been clearer...

The option I am mulling over is exiting soon and then re-entering at a lower price later on. Whilst some of these faired better than others in the big sell off in 08-09, they all got hammered to some degree. My opinion is that if the overall market pulls back, then so will these ETFs.
 
Last edited:
barjon said:
Your guess as good as mine, toastie. Fwiw I've gone to cash in my equity portfolio 'cept for a few banks. By all accounts there's still plenty of money rolling into funds, so they've got to do something with it whether they like it or not. Not sure where you can get the stats from, but keep your eye on that money flow.

cheers

jon
Click to expand...

Thing is, I was talking with a guy in the middle of last year who was 'all in cash' for all I know he still is. He was waiting for the 'big correction' and was telling me we'd see 600 before we saw.... well - what we just saw....

He missed out on a good move. I think he's still waiting for 600.
 
All depends on your purpose with the ETFs tbh... if they're long term I don't think you should be market timing, full stop...

Edit: For exactly the reason in that post, which came after I made this one.
 
DionysusToast said:
Thing is, I was talking with a guy in the middle of last year who was 'all in cash' for all I know he still is. He was waiting for the 'big correction' and was telling me we'd see 600 before we saw.... well - what we just saw....

He missed out on a good move. I think he's still waiting for 600.
Click to expand...

:) yup - i'll probably cry in my beer with him, but I'll have a few bob to buy the beer with.
 
If in doubt - get out. Don't rue on what might have been if you held. A profit is a profit.
 
I agree with amit. Don't sell everything, but do take some profits off the table.

Peter
 
DionysusToast said:
All

I brought some ETFs mid last year - not huge amounts of $$$ - just stuff I thought would be stable. The total position cost was about $66,500 and it's now roughly $82k.

attachment.php


I am thinking that with the S&P closing in on 1300, it's decision time.

So
a) Is the market is going to keep marching up regardless of the fundamentals?
b) Are the 'fundamentals' better than I think?
c) Is this just a side effect of newly created money finding somewhere to live?
d) Is a correction just around the corner?

I am marvelling at the way this market just keeps climbing relentlessly. I can't pretend to be able to predict where it will go next.

What would you do ?

DT
Click to expand...

Buy more!
 
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