Who has something to say aboutn wheat?

arabianights

arabianights

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For lulz I'm having a go at trading commodities and have taken a position in wheat (not said what cause don't wanna distort replies) .

Anyone have anything to say about wheat?
 
Hm, if you put a gun to my head and said, "Trade it, mother****er!" then I'd be long for a few ticks.
 
i think anyone who is not taking delivery of commds should not be able to trade more than 1 lot.
 
oiltanker said:
i think anyone who is not taking delivery of commds should not be able to trade more than 1 lot.
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Why? All you would be doing is draining the market of most of its liquidity... Surely liquidity benefits everyone, especially people who have a 'need' to trade other then speculation....
 
Rossini said:
Why? All you would be doing is draining the market of most of its liquidity... Surely liquidity benefits everyone, especially people who have a 'need' to trade other then speculation....
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because its evil :cheesy:

seriously- did the oil bubble of 140 help anyone other than those who speculated on it? it wasn't the 'real price' as that collapsed back to 30. all it did was transfer wealth from the poor to the rich causing serious hardship on people for no good reason. so commds which everyone is forced to use as a basic of existence shouldn't become the toy of hot money.
 
oiltanker said:
because its evil :cheesy:

seriously- did the oil bubble of 140 help anyone other than those who speculated on it? it wasn't the 'real price' as that collapsed back to 30. all it did was transfer wealth from the poor to the rich causing serious hardship on people for no good reason. so commds which everyone is forced to use as a basic of existence shouldn't become the toy of hot money.
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I love the fact you've come on a trading forum to say that. Think you're gonna find this a tough crowd.....
 
Rossini said:
Why? All you would be doing is draining the market of most of its liquidity... Surely liquidity benefits everyone, especially people who have a 'need' to trade other then speculation....
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This represents a slightly naive view of exactly why the commodities futures markets exist...

There's plenty of research to show that they do the complete opposite of what they are intended to do i.e. provide price stability to buyers & sellers of a commodity.

My views and more details on this have been stated here - http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/86726-minus-sum-game-mk-ii-derivatives.html

Now - I am not saying that these markets are evil, nor am I steering away from them when I trade.

I am just aware that they are not what they say on the tin. I think we all should be aware of it.

Lordy...



The Onion Futures Act (7 U.S.C Chapter 1 § 13-1]) is a United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions. It was passed on August 28, 1958, and remains in effect as of 2010[update].

This law is notable as the first and only ban on the trading of futures contracts of a specific commodity in United States history, and as a unique modern case with which to study the effects of the existence of an active futures market on commodity prices. In particular, proponents of futures markets often claim that they serve to stabilize otherwise volatile commodity supplies (and thus, prices) by providing a market-driven consensus mechanism for future price estimation. The conclusions drawn in subsequent studies of the effects of the Act upon price volatility have been mixed.
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Mon, 04/19/2010 - 00:11 EDT The financial reform bill being considered in the US Senate aims to impose stricter supervision of all derivatives and prohibit futures based on box-office receipts and the price of onions
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Wed, 04/21/2010 - 16:55 EDT A proposed ban on betting on movie box office receipts took one step closer to becoming law. A U.S. Senate committee on Wednesday passed a financial regulatory reform bill that supports Hollywood in outlawing the trading of futures contracts based on predicted movie ticket sales.
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GammaJammer said:
I love the fact you've come on a trading forum to say that. Think you're gonna find this a tough crowd.....
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Why's that?

I have no trouble trading crude oil, yet I can see that when speculation drove the price up, it hit a lot of people in the pocket - many of whom were not wealthy.

Should the man in the street pay more for bacon, gas & bread because of a bunch of gamblers in pin strip suits?
 
DionysusToast said:
Why's that?

I have no trouble trading crude oil, yet I can see that when speculation drove the price up, it hit a lot of people in the pocket - many of whom were not wealthy.

Should the man in the street pay more for bacon, gas & bread because of a bunch of gamblers in pin strip suits?
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He does already. The explosion in government debt in the "rich" countries (mainly USA and UK) is to bail out the banking system and thus line the gamblers' pockets. Govt spending will then be cut and taxes will rise to pay the interest on this debt.
 
I'm with Mr. Toast and against Mr. Toast.

I'm not all that convinced that speculation makes food any cheaper, or less volatile.

Nevertheless it clearly puts anyone wanting to lock in a price in a much better position. So to decide that that obvious good should be abolished, we need some extra good reason to prevent it. And I don't really see said reason.
 
two points:

* I am a blacksmith. The price of wheat goes up, and I have to pay more for my bread. Because the price of wheat has risen so, my local farmer decides to grow more of it. Come the summer, he needs more sythes to harvest said wheat, and commissions me to make half a dozen. I bill him and spend my increased earnings on... bread.

* Assymetric trading conditions are sub-optimal.
 
MrGecko said:
* I am a blacksmith. The price of wheat goes up, and I have to pay more for my bread. Because the price of wheat has risen so, my local farmer decides to grow more of it. Come the summer, he needs more sythes to harvest said wheat, and commissions me to make half a dozen. I bill him and spend my increased earnings on... bread.
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Increase in wheat growth means the farmers are using too much of their land for wheat which causes an upwards surge in the price of corn when coupled with market participants piling into the commods trade. How does the blacksmith buy his corn?
 
arabianights said:
For lulz I'm having a go at trading commodities and have taken a position in wheat (not said what cause don't wanna distort replies) .

Anyone have anything to say about wheat?
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I would have gone for Corn.

428 seems a painfully obvious buy. I'll be waiting with a bid there ;-)

As for Wheat, well Exports are up and 2010/11 ending stocks are decreasing so that's positive.

But World usage is dropping which I find worrying - mind you, so is World production.

To back up that worrying factor, taking a position here is probably the worst technical spot on a chart in my opinion.

So good job you don't read charts, Arabian :)
 
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