Some of my trades, forecasts

I wanted to open this thread to share some of my trades. Part of the thrill in trading for me is being able to look at a set of charts, ascetain the direction of a pair, then just kick back and watch it move in the way of my forecast.
I will also admit that some of my trades do take the scenic route before they go in my forecasted direction, but that's alright. About 80% of my trades are winners, so I don't mind being patient.
I love the ichimoku cloud and the componnets associated with it. I also use the stochastics as a momentum indicator, the 200 MA, and I also have a proprietary set of S&R's that are dynamite.
As a refeence, I might refer to them as DR1, or WS2, or MR3, so here is the interpretation:
D--daily; W--weekly; M--monthly; R--resistance; S--support, and the numbers are the sequence they fell in during that timeframe.
What I also like about doing this is that my posts will be forward looking and not in the rearview mirror. They also add motivation for me as a trader in knowing you guys are reading my posts, and it's something I like to do.

Aud/usd (s)

Current level is .8503. I am short this pair. The following is a cut and paste from my blog:These two pairs are abount to explode downward. I was right on the retracement for swissy, and the reversal on cable. I'm a day late on these two. The hourly and the 4-hour chart tells the story. It's the story of the two clouds. Momentum has given out for both of the pairs. Both gained additional ground on Friday, but it was very choppy. The AUD/USD was even contained under the peak created on Thursday. With momentum giving out, both of the bullish hourly clouds do not know the difference. They are rising faster than price can keep up. Price action is going to get forced into the cloud. The 4-hour clouds are a bit of a different story, but bodes well for a huge downhill run. Price is flying so far above the clouds. I mentioned this in another post, but picture it as gravity, when you fly to high, you are going to come crashing down. These are the respective numbers for the entry into the top of hourly cloud, exit out of the bottom, entry into the top of the 4-hour cloud, exit out of the bottom of the 4-hour, and the final number is the bottom of the weekly chart which will eventually be met:
AUD/USD--.8433, .8352, .8316, .8243, .7827
NZD/USD--.6819, .6743, .6739, .6683, .6262

The attached is a 4-hour chart for the AUD/USD. The ichimoku cloud is flying far below and is bearish. Kiwi looks similar.
I may not have called the entry perfect, but I don't worry about that. I just like the pips I'm going to gain from the trade. Even tough I am quite sure the respective levels are going to be hit, I may take my trades out before that if I knwo of a pair that may have a stronger leg, once these 2 start slowing down. I like to keep margin space.

There is a quite clear line of resistance there (just a bit more upside to the high of the 28th of May though). It really is a play on global risk isn't it - whether the budding bear market continues or not will influence the commodities and popularity of the dollar as a safehaven. Open interest in the futures hasn't been this low since the March 2009 lows interestingly - the big commercial hedgers (presumably Australian exporters like miners etc) don't seem to get involved in a down market, and they're very much on the sidelines at the moment. If price breaks that 8550 level of course, everything will change.

Will you keep adding to your trade at each of those lower levels then or are they all separate entries and exits? Where is your stop at the moment?

As I think Bevok is hinting at, look at the correlation between AUD/USD and the stock market over a long period.


I like the idea of trades "taking the scenic route"

I'm a moody trader. Someone was pinned the metaphor on me that I am like a drunk butterfly. "I float. You just don't know where I'm going to land."Having said that, I could add another position on as we go. If it goes the wrong way on me, then I might add another position around .8600. If it is a real strong move DOWN, then I might wait for the residual move to complete itself, then take it out, and then shop around for another quick mover.
I don't use stops, because if there is a spike, then it takes me out, and then I'm on the outside looking in. A recent example was the short I had on swissy. It spiked up on June 8th because of the news, then came right back down. If I had a stop, I would have gotten stopped out, and then lost out on circa +160 pips on the trade.
My goal is to find an optimal entry, then get out of the way and let the trade do its thing. A lot of times I will hit it perfectly, and other times, well....not so perfect. Bottom line is that I have about 80% winners, and I know my trades come around and will do its thing. I'm conservative on my margin practices, so it does not bother me to not have a stop.

bevok said:

There is a quite clear line of resistance there (just a bit more upside to the high of the 28th of May though). It really is a play on global risk isn't it - whether the budding bear market continues or not will influence the commodities and popularity of the dollar as a safehaven. Open interest in the futures hasn't been this low since the March 2009 lows interestingly - the big commercial hedgers (presumably Australian exporters like miners etc) don't seem to get involved in a down market, and they're very much on the sidelines at the moment. If price breaks that 8550 level of course, everything will change.

Will you keep adding to your trade at each of those lower levels then or are they all separate entries and exits? Where is your stop at the moment?

Click to expand...

Sometimes price action is like bad little kids. You send them to the store, and instead of them coming straight home, they stop off at freinds' house, or they just like to mess around. Give them time. They will eventually come home. Traes are that way too. You enter the trade, you think the entry is perfect, then it spike the wrong way, or just decides to travel to the next S or R level. Sometimes they will take off in the right direction, momentum gives out, then reverses against you. Eventually, they all come home, and the trader gets to cash the pips.
Put a EUR/JPY chart next to the stock market if you want to see a similarity.

montmorencyt2w said:

As I think Bevok is hinting at, look at the correlation between AUD/USD and the stock market over a long period.


I like the idea of trades "taking the scenic route"

Click to expand...

Bottom line is that I have about 80% winners, and I know my trades come around and will do its thing.

Click to expand...

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.

Aud/chf--s

Wow! So many pips, but so little time. This is the daily chart which tells the story. A little further push up should be seen once the bell rings for the new week. .9857 is the bottom of the cloud. There could be a slight spike through it, as my last week's WR3 at .9871, or even the MR1 at .9895 could be tempting bait for the price action.
The previous time increment always serves as decent S or R for the following week. Once my 3's are hit, price action has been stretched.
The daily chart shows a very bearish cloud into the future. Add to that the aforementioned R's, and you have the makings of a ride back to my MS1 at .9423. This pair move slow, so be prepared to take the bus on this one. Longer term .9079 is still on the radar.

Exactly, and the countertrends prodcue more pips, provided you found the right entry.

bevok said:

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.

Click to expand...

Looks like a double bottom What is the long term trend at the moment? Where will you decide to go long instead of short?

I'm just challenging your trade management, not saying you're wrong.

Oh that's fine. I only claim to be right most of the time, not all the time. (Please take that as confidence and not conceit.).
My weekly chart tells a good portion of the story. The candle is safely inside the cloud, as it netered the top. There is about an 85% chance it will stay in the cloud until the bottom has been hit, which is .7827. Also, .8070 is my YS1, which is why price has been having a hard time penetrating that point. Eventually it gives out. When it does, the fall from there to the bottom of the cloud could be abrupt.
If there is a weekly close below .7827, then there will be much further depths to explore. My YS2, which is the circa area of .7290 immediately is on the radar. For now, I'm counting on .7827.

OK, you have a lot of targets for if you're right, but where will you get out if you're wrong? Under what circumstances would you consider going long? That 15% chance it doesn't stay in the cloud could theoretically cost you most of your account unless you have a plan now to cover that circumstance.

I've found the only way to survive long term is to plan your trades well, and the most important part of that is setting your risk first, then deciding on your potential reward (and whether the ratio of the two is worthwhile) before entering. Even if you're right most of the time, ignoring planning for the downside will definitely lead to either a few demoralising big losses, or worse blow you out of the game. I'm challenging you because you look like you're strategising well, but are just missing part of the puzzle. Of course in my very humble opinion.

Thanks! I love to be challenged whch is why I'm going to enjoy publishing my trades in this venue. Those targets are simply predicated on what I see on the ichimoku and consideing it has been extremely reliable, those targets are ususally hit. The point you made concerning the "15%" is a valid one. This is why I consider myself to be a very conservative-type of trader, and unemotional when it comes to entering and exiting my trades. Momentum, especially at the beginning of a reversal is key. That tells me a lot about the velocity by which certain S&R's will be hit. I more than likely will not ride the trade until that final objective, namely the bottom of the weekly cloud is hit. The objectives, as well as current waning momentum , and the stochs being OB tell me there is a lot of potential, and that is what I really look for are the trades with the highest potential.
Another thing about the aussie is that seeing the big trend is DOWN, and all indicators, right now, are showing the signs of a strong reversal, it also tells me there will be some sort of gravitational pull to my entry if worse case scenario prevails
If things were really to get bad, and my forecast was totally off (this hardly ever happens), then I'll take it on the chin and move on to the next position. I look at it like this, the difference between minus100 pips and positive 100 pips is only 200 pips. That is miniscule over the long haul.
BTW, another reason I give all the targets is to know what to expect, in this case, supports along the way. The ichimoku is dynamic, so kijuns, tenkens, et al will change as the trae progresses. One thing that does not change are my personal S&R's. My WR1 is .8641. I don't want to say it won't be hit, but I sincerely doubt it. If it does get hit, then you will see a hard bounce off it . Also, my WS1 is .8391 and the WS2 is .8266. If this is a strong reversal, then there will also be hard bounce off of .8266. That being said, the price movement is quite amazing once those levels are hit. There is action peculiar to those levels that goes on.

AUD/USD & NZD/USD update & the EUR/AUD

Okay, since I missed it by one level. Right now, kiwi is camping around the WR1 at .6998. My MR1 is .7022. The area it spiked out of the cloud on the daily is .7021. In essence, this area is the end of the upward shenanigans.
The aussie is camping around my WR1 at .8641, which is also the circa area for the 200 MA on the 4-hour chart. .8691 and .8693 are the respective points of my MR1a and WR1a. .8725 is absolute containment. I ditto my same sentiments in the last sentence of the 1st paragraph.
I might even add on an extra position just to double my pleasure as we head south. Call it the teen-age syndrom. As a teen-ager I got a kick out of getting a picture with 2 of my girlfriends. Now, I have one wife, and that is all I need.
At this point, it is hard to ascertain when the descension will be over for the EUR/AUD cross. I know for sure that, for me, all shorts are out of the question for this pair. Once the LT UP begins, 1.7525 is on the radar. Yeah, yeah! Quite a bold statement. Wait for several months. That bullish engulfing candle last month is just a sample of what is about to happen with this pair.

Gbp/jpy

The correction still has a strong leg on it. Some key R's to look for on the way further UP are WR2 at 136.19, MR1 137.49, If price gets beyond the latter, then it should be on its way to 138.43. With the exception of what might be a minor spike, that level will be containment. The 4-hour kijun sen will clearly be on the radar on the way back DOWN at 133.13. A further drop should ensue, but I am only looking at what is inevitable for now.

Yes, something in my gut (don't rely on that for making trading decisions by the way) said when this correction starts its going to be stronger than the previous ones. The dollar has been vertical especially against the Euro and ready for a good flushout in the other direction, at the least to get rid of all the dollar buyers sitting in the market not doing anything and rebalance things. Has this move got real legs? Well again it comes down to risk appetite generally. In the indexes the up move looks like its found a temporary top and might be forming a bit of a triangle, a sure sign of participants hedging their bets for now while they wait for more information.

The probabilities have to favour it breaking out to the downside - the new austerity measures will very likely increase fears of economic contraction in Europe, and put a dampener on any plans for the US to export themselves out of trouble. It could consolidate for a few weeks though, will need some biggish news again as the European sovereign debt situation seems priced in now.

this whole move is looking too risky for me, as fsar as the EUR/USD is concerned. I wanted to see the last leg on the DOWN complete itself at around 1.1820. Instead it was stopped at 1.1875. Now, we have a spotty, consolidative correction. I hate to say anything to brash about this pair, but to me, it appears that 1.2698, at least is going to be hit before we are fully ensconced back in the DOWN. That target is the weekly tenken. Having said that, there are other pairs I have a lot more confidence in than this one-- such as the aussie, kiwi, and the reversal point for the GBP/JPY. It does not appear that this pullback on the correction looks strong enough, If it is, then I'm going to miss the ride south.

USD/CHF--S & Kiwi--aussie update

Current level is 1.1426. The 1.1349 objective was hit yesterday, right on the nose. Next leg DOWN will take the pair to 1.1284. Next levels will be the weekly kijun at 1.1166, and containment, which is the combination kijun and top of the cloud at 1.0930. From there we could be looking at a 1,000point rise, but not confirmed yet.
The 2 trades on the aussie are a combined net+ finally. The .8468 is -82 and the entry at .8641 is a +94. The combined 12 pips is not enough to pay the bills, so I'm not jumping off. Kiwi is -77 and +68. Once them 2 really get moving, it is going to be fun.

USD/CHF update

I just took my trade out at 1.1349, which is my DS2. It's getting to that time of the day where hte lack of volume will slow the movement down, and +77 pips is not bad for overnight.
This pair is still on my watch, because key downside objectives still have not been met.

Nzd/usd & aud/usd

My two positions will continue to go against me today for another leg. There are stronger obviations with kiwi than aussie. Kiwi's current price is .6969 where it has found strong support at the top of the hourly cloud and around the tenken. I can only view any possible moves in tandem with the AUD/USD. That being the case, the respective DR2's should be containment. AUD/USD--.8732, NZD/USD--.7044. Kiwi's MR1 at .7022 could also be containment. I was thinking about a hedge, but always feel dubious about entering in the direction of a correction when I know it is close to the end.