Aspenalysis: Simple To Follow FX Trade Ideas

Aspen Trading Group

Aspen Trading Group

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Traders, the existing thread we have here at T2W deals mainly with the process behind our IPA Trade Methodology

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/139478-fx-analysis-casting-wide-net.html

With that said, not all traders are interested in getting involved in the actual process of trade selection, but would just rather get the final output so they can quickly evaluate whether or not they want to take the trade.

So, starting today, we will offer up some actionable 'Trade Ideas' in the FX market. We will kick off the first post with a long consideration in USD/NOK. First, do not freak out about a pair that is not EUR/USD - who cares what the pair or cross is, as long as it moves! With oil prices weak and the technical pattern solid in USD/NOK, we like longs in here. (NOTE: pip values on this pair are only .17 per mini lot and 1.70 per stand lot.)

5.7.12nok30min.png


5.7.12oil60min.png
 
Just a talking head alert - Aspen's big media cheese, Todd Gordon, will be on CNBC Fast Money at 12:30 PM EST today talking about yesterday's USD/NOK chart
 
Aspen Trading Group said:
Traders, the existing thread we have here at T2W deals mainly with the process behind our IPA Trade Methodology

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/139478-fx-analysis-casting-wide-net.html

With that said, not all traders are interested in getting involved in the actual process of trade selection, but would just rather get the final output so they can quickly evaluate whether or not they want to take the trade.

So, starting today, we will offer up some actionable 'Trade Ideas' in the FX market. We will kick off the first post with a long consideration in USD/NOK. First, do not freak out about a pair that is not EUR/USD - who cares what the pair or cross is, as long as it moves! With oil prices weak and the technical pattern solid in USD/NOK, we like longs in here. (NOTE: pip values on this pair are only .17 per mini lot and 1.70 per stand lot.)

5.7.12nok30min.png


5.7.12oil60min.png
Click to expand...

Just booked partial profits at 5.8438 in USD/NOK - the 1350 level in the S&P's is key and was the catalyst for making the adjustment.
 
We re-established another piece to the USD/NOK long yesterday afternoon but are watching current levels real close. We need to see a decisive break below 1345 in the S&P futures if we are to see USD/NOK trade higher into our 5.8600 and 5.8800 target levels.

Failure to break below 1345 will likely force us to start booking profits in USD/NOK - keeping a tight leash in here. -DF-
 
A real street fight here at 1350 - S&P pits must be real interesting here. If prices can remain below 1350 USD/NOK should kick nicely higher while EUR/USD should look towards 1.2875 as min target.
 
Aspen Trading Group said:
A real street fight here at 1350 - S&P pits must be real interesting here. If prices can remain below 1350 USD/NOK should kick nicely higher while EUR/USD should look towards 1.2875 as min target.
Click to expand...

Does not get more basic/simple than that - weak equities allows for easy pips in USD/NOK and EUR/USD - no reason to not have been on board.
 
Traders, GBP/USD has held in pretty well during the recent push lower in the S&P's. Additionally, the EW count is pretty solid. So, if we are to assume that the S&P's are beginning to carve out a low into this 1340/10 area and then push higher - GBP/USD should be a good one to jump on.

It will require some patience and perhaps even scaling into the trade as we do not have confirmation that today's lows in the S&P's are the true lows of this move. Either way, some clients will see some value in the set-up noted below.

5.9.12gbp90min.png
 
The following commentary pertains to the previous posting on GBP/USD:

Traders, GBP/USD continues to push nicely higher and with the S&P's catching a bid that certainly adds to the momentum.

Bear in mind however, yesterday's lows at 1343 in the S&P may not have been the Wave 4 lows. The first count below is the one that we are favoring and would suggest that the 'risk on' trade is back.

The second count merely delays a sustained risk on trade thus leaving GBP/USD vulnerable to a pull-back of some degree. It just depends on how you manage your trades - are you a hit and run type trader, or do you try to milk the trend and ride out the inevitable pull-backs?

spB.png


spA.png
 
S&P's looking heavy - looks like another leg lower per a modified Scenario #2 shown above. We just advised clients to not be afraid to book partial profits in GBP/USD if S&P's remain weak below 1367 - you can always re-load GBP/USD longs at better levels.
 
Per the last post on Friday (see above) AUD/JPY remains weak and is likely to carve out lower levels still. With the S&P's under pressure likely towards 1320/10, AUD/JPY will continue to offer good short set-ups.

5.14.12AUDJPY_30min.png
 
'Risk on' or 'risk off'? The S&P's are suggesting 'risk on':

5.16.12spCount1.png


Given the way the S&P futures are trading in the pre-market, the S&P's will open above 1335 and thus suggest that Wave 4 is complete and prices will move briskly higher. This reversal in prices of course should not come as a suprise - it was merely a function of where the bottom would ultimately fit in - is looks increasingly likely we will have an answer very soon.
 
Join Aspen's Trader Education Series with "Characteristics of Major Currencies" @ 4:30PM ET Today. In this FREE 30 minute Director of Client Education, Bart Marek will unveil the trading charteristics & considerations of trading specific currencies. Join us and learn the difference between trading USD vs AUD or GBP and more.

Register here: https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/545966254
 
While the S&P's continue to trade higher, AUD/JPY is having nothing to do with it. This is a key sign. If the risk-off theme resumes, the Wave iv resistance level at 79.18 (max of 79.36) should hold and prices will quickly push lower to the target zone noted in the chart below.

5.22.12audjpyTARGET.jpg
 
Aspen Trading Group said:
While the S&P's continue to trade higher, AUD/JPY is having nothing to do with it. This is a key sign. If the risk-off theme resumes, the Wave iv resistance level at 79.18 (max of 79.36) should hold and prices will quickly push lower to the target zone noted in the chart below.

5.22.12audjpyTARGET.jpg
Click to expand...

S&P futures under pressure and AUD/JPY is off 50 pips since the original posting
 
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