95% lose

ffsear

ffsear

Guest Author
Messages
2,304
Likes
551
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?

I find it hard to understand how a such a figure can be accurate across a trillion dollar daily market where deals are conducted anomalously across and electronic network.


Thought?
 
I think it is an estimate , it means 95% eventually will lose during their trading career , but if you take a look at the US retail fx Q report the success rate is much higher than 5% but it is meaningless as it is based on Q/Q calculations .
 
ffsear said:
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?

I find it hard to understand how a such a figure can be accurate across a trillion dollar daily market where deals are conducted anomalously across and electronic network.


Thought?
Click to expand...

Maybe it is just in relation to retail traders and the figures come from the retail brokers. Would be interested in finding out if it is true and how it is calculated. (over what time frames etc). There was/is a similar thing in online poker (thinkit was 10% are winners over the long term) and guess they get the figures from the various poker sites.
 
Rather than randomly guessing, if people can prove quite easily they are in the 5% then we can safely disregard 95%. I have seen no such proof, so my person estimate remains at 99.5% loose, and I am being quit optimistic.
 
ffsear said:
Just wondering who/when/how was this study done? Or is it an estimate?
Click to expand...

If you look at it from a probability perspective, assuming players in a negative sum game, the figure is too low, but over a long enough period of a couple of years, that figure is in the right ballpark

There's been a few broker studies published that support the 95% argument

If you extrapolate the quarterly reports provided by the NFA they are pretty much what you'd expect from punters playing a negative sum game

A certain t2w member is currently analyzing around 8000 accounts provided by a forex broker, as part of the research for his PhD, IIRC his initial research shows that only around 0.04% of traders are able to string together 4 consecutive profitable months. Absolutely what you'd expect.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...success-rates-some-real-data.html#post2049720
 
ffsear said:
Yea I saw, why did that thread get closed?
Click to expand...

It did ? I didn't realise. If true, my guess is the bucketshops are getting upset. I did say in the thread the OP will get paid to do nothing at a certain point ? Maybe it was a voluntary close ?
 
BeginnerJoe said:
It did ? I didn't realise. If true, my guess is the bucketshops are getting upset.
Click to expand...

A bucket shop rep was actually recommending my favorite trading book last week. That's how blatant they've become !

They know their typical punter is so dumb you can tell em exactly how the games played and they still won't get it !

It's very lulzy :clap:

Edited to add, the thread isn't closed so Joe is just being his usual paranoid self assuming someone will move the market 50 pips to take out his stop !

Try thinking as you you where sitting inside your monitor from the other side of the chart and imagine someone from that position watching you !
 
the hare said:
A bucket shop rep was actually recommending my favorite trading book last week. That's how blatant they've become !

They know their typical punter is so dumb you can tell em exactly how the games played and they still won't get it !

It's very lulzy :clap:
Click to expand...

Roflcopter.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B
90-95% lose money in forex market?
3 4 5
Replies
92
Views
27K
0007
0007
Pipsaholic
  • Locked
95% Of Traders Dont Make It Saying
Replies
0
Views
1K
Pipsaholic
Pipsaholic
Wile E Trader
Is this true that 95% of forex traders lose money
Replies
5
Views
3K
trader-john
trader-john
Adamus
Where does the "95% lose" adage come from?
Replies
13
Views
3K
lamog7
L
T
Major market moving events
Replies
0
Views
1K
troyresearch
T
Top