How to Identify Trends

when i trade i tend to buy late or sell late when a trend is over ?

avtardhillon said:

when i trade i tend to buy late or sell late when a trend is over ?

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Or maybe you didn't buy late and sell late. They saw you coming and thought your money could be used for buying lunch. So they took it from you.

BeginnerJoe said:

Or maybe you didn't buy late and sell late. They saw you coming and thought your money could be used for buying lunch. So they took it from you.

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from your post i don't lnow if it was a joke or not but i can sa no i didn't sell or buy anything during lunch i am talking about what systems or methods are used to predict a trend

avtardhillon said:

from your post i don't lnow if it was a joke or not but i can sa no i didn't sell or buy anything during lunch i am talking about what systems or methods are used to predict a trend

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Identify a trend, or predict a trend?
Identifying a trend is quite straight forward..prediction is something else entirely

malaguti said:

Identify a trend, or predict a trend?
Identifying a trend is quite straight forward..prediction is something else entirely

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yep that is what i mean

avtardhillon said:

yep that is what i mean

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good glad thats sorted then

malaguti said:

good glad thats sorted then

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so what would u recommend

avtardhillon said:

when i trade i tend to buy late or sell late when a trend is over ?

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Hi avtardhillon,
Take a look at this Sticky - plenty of links to help you: Essentials Of Technical Analysis
Also, there are lots of contributions in the Articles section of the site - of which this is one: Capturing Trend Days
You have to define a trend so that you can look at any chart and say whether it's trending up, down or sideways. How you do that is up to you. Typically, many traders look for a one or more higher highs and at least two higher lows in an uptrend. Visa versa for a down trend. Alternatively, you could use moving averages or, if you're really lazy and want everything handed to you on a plate - use Point & Figure charts. Most software packages these days will draw trendlines on a chart for you. Here's an example . . .



Each X and O represents a move of 50 points on the Dow. The trend remains bullish until the blue line is broken.
HTH.
Tim.

timsk said:

Hi avtardhillon,
Take a look at this Sticky - plenty of links to help you: Essentials Of Technical Analysis
Also, there are lots of contributions in the Articles section of the site - of which this is one: Capturing Trend Days
You have to define a trend so that you can look at any chart and say whether it's trending up, down or sideways. How you do that is up to you. Typically, many traders look for a one or more higher highs and at least two higher lows in an uptrend. Visa versa for a down trend. Alternatively, you could use moving averages or, if you're really lazy and want everything handed to you on a plate - use Point & Figure charts. Most software packages these days will draw trendlines on a chart for you. Here's an example . . .

View attachment 152496

Each X and O represents a move of 50 points on the Dow. The trend remains bullish until the blue line is broken.
HTH.
Tim.

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Showing off your stock charts Tim!
Higher Highs, higher lows thats it for a trend..point and figure not for the newbie didn't you say

timsk said:

Hi avtardhillon,
Take a look at this Sticky - plenty of links to help you: Essentials Of Technical Analysis
Also, there are lots of contributions in the Articles section of the site - of which this is one: Capturing Trend Days
You have to define a trend so that you can look at any chart and say whether it's trending up, down or sideways. How you do that is up to you. Typically, many traders look for a one or more higher highs and at least two higher lows in an uptrend. Visa versa for a down trend. Alternatively, you could use moving averages or, if you're really lazy and want everything handed to you on a plate - use Point & Figure charts. Most software packages these days will draw trendlines on a chart for you. Here's an example . . .

View attachment 152496

Each X and O represents a move of 50 points on the Dow. The trend remains bullish until the blue line is broken.
HTH.
Tim.

Click to expand...

just read the post thanks on the thread about TA

avtardhillon said:

just read the post thanks on the thread about TA

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80 % of trends fizzle out or fail , just search a lot on internet about trend failures and failure of technical analyses.Find a method of separating false trend breakouts from real trends , they are normally backed by fundamentals .

One simple way of determining real trends is to look at 15 min , 1 hr , 4 hour , daily and weekly time frames.

avtardhillon said:

when i trade i tend to buy late or sell late when a trend is over ?

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Why 80% fail at using a trend following technique to trade the forex..avi - YouTube

Trend trading is easy , difficult part is finding real trends.

You see trends where none exist

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-psychology/162984-self-fullfilling-prophecy-set-ups.html

Some types of trend trading has high failure rates , so traders have to be highly experienced to trade trends.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162398-box-breakout-trading.html#post2021234

The famous turtle failed on live accounts

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses.

Richard Dennis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Henry to Exit Money Game

John W. Henry to Stop Managing Client Money - WSJ.com

In order to identify a trend, you first have to define what a trend is. When price behaves as such you have defined to meet criteria of a "trend," then, voila, you've identified a trend.

15 min tlb said:

Trend trading is easy , difficult part is finding real trends.

You see trends where none exist

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-psychology/162984-self-fullfilling-prophecy-set-ups.html

Some types of trend trading has high failure rates , so traders have to be highly experienced to trade trends.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162398-box-breakout-trading.html#post2021234

The famous turtle failed on live accounts

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses.

Richard Dennis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Henry to Exit Money Game

John W. Henry to Stop Managing Client Money - WSJ.com

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If you look on the internet for evidence of failures for trend trading, you will always find them.
But, Some of the best most successfull traders in the world use trends and technical analysis as a tool for their trading. The fact that it was a trend proves it was succesful. The question is when did you get in and get out.

Hi,

I would guess using a trend based system works for some people and for others it doesn't. In both cases any success is maybe more due to risk/money management, stop positions, exit strategy etc, rather than following a trend based system or not. I'm sure there will be an equal number of people on either side to argue the case... better qualified than me though so I'll leave that subject ha.

Personally though, I find being able to quantify/visualize trends and therefore the way a pair has moved over a time period helps when I'm looking back over past trades to see where I have made good/bad/lucky decisions. i.e. Have I been trading against a bigger trend and losing, trading with a trend and winning but not for the reasons I am basing my decisions on, or has the pair been moving sideways etc...

I've attached some of the charts I use.
-4 different time scales.
-Heiken Ashi candlesticks
-Triangular MA's (multiples of 8 seem to fit nicely). With different multiples of ATR to give a channel. TMA's are multiplied up to fit different timescales, but this is very approximate.
-The Trend Strength indicator is my own simple graphical way to show the height, and difference in height of the HA bars.

So from these charts I can see the movement in varying degrees of detail. So in this case, I would be saying the Pair broadly (weekly) is trending up but this week has been fairly flat (daily), within an 85 point range.

I hope this is of some use. I'm sure other people have different ways of seeing the same information, and others would not see the relevance of price movement on different time-scales etc I just find it helpful.

This is by no means a trading strategy or predictive setup, it just helps me to understand the price movement better.

Anyway hope it helps.

Cheers.

great charts chattiFX, look closely and you will see the basis of "trend signal" a 3 grand advisory signal systen

malaguti said:

great charts chattiFX, look closely and you will see the basis of "trend signal" a 3 grand advisory signal systen

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look at these freerer charts , they are mooch moore informative.

Trading Through a Whipsaw | How to Avoid Being Whipsawed

Avoiding Ranging Markets - Filtering Your Trading Strategy | tradimo

15 min tlb said:

The famous turtle failed on live accounts

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses.

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That is an unfair statement and factually incorrect. The reasons are complex and best laid out in Michael W. Covel's book "The Complete Turtle Trader - Chapter 8"

avtardhillon said:

when i trade i tend to buy late or sell late when a trend is over ?

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Are you using lagging indicators and moving averages?