Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

gka · Dec 17, 2017

Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.

NVP · Dec 17, 2017

a simple straight line works for me and TRO ? .......

N

counter_violent · Dec 17, 2017

gka said:
Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.

Hi Graham, looks very interesting.

Could this methodology be applied to Stock indices? Have you done any work in that area?

gka · Dec 17, 2017

NVP said:
a simple straight line works for me and TRO ? .......

N

Hi... I am not familiar with the abbreviation TRO...

gka · Dec 17, 2017

counter_violent said:
Hi Graham, looks very interesting.

Could this methodology be applied to Stock indices? Have you done any work in that area?

Yes I believe that it can be applied to stock indices. Which stock index are you interested in?

NVP · Dec 17, 2017

gka said:
Hi... I am not familiar with the abbreviation TRO...

sorry Graham - the rumpled one ......check him out here and on youtube

known him for years ..........

N

counter_violent · Dec 17, 2017

gka said:
Yes I believe that it can be applied to stock indices. Which stock index are you interested in?

Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.

gka · Dec 17, 2017

counter_violent said:
Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.

I can try out the algorithm on these indices and get back to you.

NVP · Dec 17, 2017

counter_violent said:
Primarily the US, Dow, S+P, Nasdaq.

I continually monitor the order of strength and weakness both in rising and falling moves.

relative strength is a powerful tool ......

counter_violent · Dec 17, 2017

NVP said:
relative strength is a powerful tool ......

Yes, you should see my set up.

gerryg · Dec 18, 2017

gka said:
Hi Everyone, My name is Graham and I am a mathematician here in Canada.

There are lots of different technical analysis methods to determine future support and resistance levels. They can be subjective and depend upon experience. I have been wondering whether support and resistance levels can be determined mathematically and now have a working algorithm I call the Volatility Response Model (VRM).

The VRM calculates future support and resistance levels either one day ahead or one week ahead, together with short and long term trend channels. These predictions are not extrapolations from the past. I attach a white paper describing the algorithm.

I am looking for FX traders for feedback, discussions and opinions on the VRM predictions. To this end I will post predictions in this thread as markets progress.

Here is the first set of predictions for GBPUSD in chart format starting 5 pm New York time tonight. The second attached paper describes the format of these predictions on the chart. They are essentially 24 weekly levels and 24 daily levels. The latter will last until 5 pm New York time tomorrow night. Tomorrow night after the close in New York I will post the GBPUSD market price action and the VRM levels on the same chart.

Have you made any upgrades to this public algorithm or is it custom-built version from you? I mean what you find from public is dead thing, as profitable methods are already price in and eliminate earning opportunity.

gka · Dec 18, 2017

gerryg said:
Have you made any upgrades to this public algorithm or is it custom-built version from you? I mean what you find from public is dead thing, as profitable methods are already price in and eliminate earning opportunity.

The VRM algorithm is built from scratch by myself using a new approach to extrapolation that is effectively interpolation using historic high, low & close data. After the end of the New York close tonight I will show you an example of the FX pair GBPUSD.

gka · Dec 18, 2017

Following yesterday's VRM predictions for the support & resistance levels of GBPUSD here are the results as New York closes. I attach two 30 minute charts showing GBPUSD price action. Top chart shows yesterday's predicted weekly levels. Bottom chart shows yesterday's daily predicted levels. Both charts also show an EMA channel of (4,7). Time is GMT-4. The high for the day was at the weekly predicted level 1.3416. The low for the day started at the daily level 1.3319. The market was unable to pull the EMA channel through the VRM level 1.3401. Did anyone predict the daily high resistance level? What methods are other using? Feedback appreciated!

gka · Dec 18, 2017

I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm in New York. A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.

gka · Dec 19, 2017

Last night I attached the support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for Tuesday. Here are the results. Weekly levels in the top 30 minute chart, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Weekly VRM level 1.3397 featured as the day's high. The market then fell to VRM daily level 1.3347. There were some large gaps between VRM levels.

Did anyone find a resistance level about 1.3397 using other technical analysis techniques?

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow shortly.

gka · Dec 20, 2017

I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 20th December in New York. A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

The GBPUSD has not yet found support above the centre of the short term trend channel now at 1.3392.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.

gka · Dec 20, 2017

Last night I attached the support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for Tuesday. Here are the results. Weekly levels in the top 30 minute chart, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Daily level 1.3419 featured as the day's high. The market then fell to weekly level 1.3369. There were some large gaps between levels.

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow shortly.

gka · Dec 20, 2017

GBPUSD levels through to 5 pm 21st Dec New York time

I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 21st December in New York.

The GBPUSD has not yet found support above the centre of the short term trend channel now at 1.3390.

A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.

gka · Dec 21, 2017

Last night I attached the support and resistance levels of GBPUSD of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for today. Here are the results. Weekly levels in the top 1 hour chart, daily levels in the bottom 30 minute chart. Times are GMT-4 . EMA channel (4,7) included.

Daily level 1.3381 was the day's first high before falling to level 1.3349. Then rallying back up. There were some large gaps between levels.

Predictions for tonight and tomorrow to follow shortly.

gka · Dec 21, 2017

I attach the VRM predictions for GBPUSD for tonight and tomorrow finishing 5 pm 22nd December in New York.

A description of the algorithm and format of the attached chart can be found in the first post of this thread.

For anybody interested in predictions for other FX pairs just follow the link at the end of these two documents.

Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics

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